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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Estoril cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over GIL Vicente.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Estoril beat GIL Vicente 3-1 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 23, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.76 xG and GIL Vicente 1.44 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Estoril beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 1.29 / defence 1.18 against GIL Vicente attack 0.99 / defence 0.88, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estoril 45% | Draw 23% | GIL Vicente 31%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 70%, GIL Vicente 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estoril's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

GIL Vicente's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Estoril 1.36 PPG, GIL Vicente 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estoril win broke the near-deadlock. Estoril (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm. GIL Vicente (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights