Estoril 1-3 FC Porto – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours FC Porto (50%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Estoril face FC Porto.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Estoril and FC Porto meet at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota in Primeira Liga (matchday 29). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 21:30 UK time.
Current Form
Estoril's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Estoril have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Estoril are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
FC Porto (all games): 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W D W W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Porto's form when playing away from home: 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 road games (2.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
On a straight form reading, FC Porto are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Across the 8 H2H matches in our data, FC Porto have the stronger record — 5 wins to Estoril's 2, with 1 draw.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Nov 2025, ended Estoril 0–1 FC Porto — a FC Porto win.
FC Porto have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 8 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading & In-Play
Estoril — key trading statistics (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
FC Porto — key trading statistics (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 56% versus FC Porto 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estoril 69% | FC Porto 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.13 xG and FC Porto 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 1.111 / defence 1.156 | FC Porto attack 1.283 / defence 0.672. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.140. FC Porto bring a tight defence (rating 0.672, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Estoril's projected output down. FC Porto have an above-average attack rating of 1.283, which lifts their away xG to 1.69. Data: built from Estoril's last 62 games and FC Porto's last 62.
Result probabilities: Estoril 25% | Draw 24% | FC Porto 50%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 3.93 | Draw 4.15 | FC Porto 1.98. FC Porto hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Porto at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Porto if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Estoril's last 10 home games and FC Porto's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Estoril 80% (last 10 home games) | FC Porto 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs FC Porto | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 29 | Venue: Estádio António Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Sunday 12 April 2026 at 21:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 25% | Draw 24% | FC Porto 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Estoril 1.13 / FC Porto 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 1.111 / def 1.156 | FC Porto attack 1.283 / def 0.672 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: FC Porto (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
1.69
FC Porto xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Estoril vs FC Porto FAQs
What time does Estoril vs FC Porto kick off?
Estoril vs FC Porto kicked off at 21:30 UK time on Sunday 12 April 2026 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What was the final score in Estoril vs FC Porto?
Estoril 1 - 3 FC Porto.
Where is Estoril vs FC Porto being played?
The match is being played at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs FC Porto part of?
Estoril vs FC Porto is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 29) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs FC Porto?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 25% chance of winning, FC Porto a 50% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC Porto the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs FC Porto?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Estoril and FC Porto will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Estoril vs FC Porto have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Estoril's attack at 1.11x the league average against FC Porto's defence at 0.67x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Porto's attack (1.28x) against Estoril's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.69.
These ratings are built from Estoril's last 62 games and FC Porto's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Porto Win
25%
3.93
24%
4.15
50%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Estoril xG
Total xG
2.82
1.69
FC Porto xG
3.93
25%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
1.98
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
18%
5.42
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
5%
21.34
16%
6.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 10.1 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Estoril vs FC Porto Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs FC Porto?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Estoril and FC Porto expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Estoril and 1.69 for FC Porto, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs FC Porto?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Estoril come into this having played 62 games, going 22W 17D 23L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, FC Porto sit at 2.32 PPG from 62 outings (45W 9D 8L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-D across their last five.
FC Porto carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.98 PPG clear of Estoril — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Estoril's home form reads 13W 9D 9L across their last 31 home games, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Porto have taken 2.13 points per game from their last 31 away games (21W 3D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Porto come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Estoril are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; FC Porto are on 1.95 scored and 0.69 conceded.
Defensively: FC Porto in 55% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Current Season
FC Porto
Current Season
Estoril (Home) vs FC Porto (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Estoril
Current Season
FC Porto
Current Season
❓ Estoril vs FC Porto Form FAQs
What form are Estoril and FC Porto in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 22W 17D 23L in their last 62 games (1.34 PPG), while FC Porto have gone 45W 9D 8L in their last 62 (2.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or FC Porto away?
FC Porto's away record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 1.55 PPG; FC Porto away: 2.13 PPG.
Have Estoril or FC Porto been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estoril have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, FC Porto in 55%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Porto have won each of the latest 5 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Porto won FC Porto 4-0 Estoril on 3 Nov 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Estoril have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC Porto — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Estoril
1
Draws
7
FC Porto
Recent Meetings
❓ Estoril vs FC Porto H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and FC Porto?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Estoril have won 2, FC Porto have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Estoril and FC Porto last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: FC Porto 4-0 Estoril.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and FC Porto?
FC Porto have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
FC Porto are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estoril 61%, FC Porto 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Estoril) and 52% (FC Porto). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Porto in 52%; Estoril have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / FC Porto away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Estoril vs FC Porto Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Estoril and FC Porto matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Estoril's recent matches and 36% of FC Porto's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Estoril and FC Porto matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Estoril's matches and 52% of FC Porto's.
Do Estoril and FC Porto matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Estoril's recent matches and 71% of FC Porto's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Porto cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Estoril.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Porto beat Estoril 1-3 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 29, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.13 xG and FC Porto 1.69 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. FC Porto outscored their 1.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 1.11 / defence 1.16 against FC Porto attack 1.28 / defence 0.67, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estoril 25% | Draw 24% | FC Porto 50%, with FC Porto to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 69%, FC Porto 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estoril's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
FC Porto's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Porto arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.34. Form held, and they took the win. Estoril (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Porto (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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