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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Porto cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Estoril.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Porto beat Estoril 1-3 at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 29, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.13 xG and FC Porto 1.69 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. FC Porto outscored their 1.69 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 1.11 / defence 1.16 against FC Porto attack 1.28 / defence 0.67, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estoril 25% | Draw 24% | FC Porto 50%, with FC Porto to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 69%, FC Porto 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estoril's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

FC Porto's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, FC Porto arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.34. Form held, and they took the win. Estoril (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Porto (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights