Estoril 0-0 Casa Pia – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Estoril at 64% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Estoril vs Casa Pia encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Estoril and Casa Pia meet at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota in Primeira Liga (matchday 25). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 7 March 2026 at 20:30 UK time.

Form

Estoril (all games): 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Estoril's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Casa Pia have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Casa Pia have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form ledger tips toward Estoril. A 0.60 PPG lead over Casa Pia (1.90 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Estoril edge it 3 wins to 1, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.9 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 3 Oct 2025, ended Estoril 2–2 Casa Pia — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.9 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Estoril half-time and goal-timing data (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

Casa Pia half-time and goal-timing data (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 57% versus Casa Pia 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estoril 71% | Casa Pia 47%). Note also that Casa Pia surrender HT leads in 43% of cases while Estoril recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 2.25 xG and Casa Pia 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 1.373 / defence 1.154 | Casa Pia attack 0.757 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.174. Estoril carry an above-average attack rating of 1.373 — their 2.25 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Casa Pia's attack rating of 0.757 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Data: built from Estoril's last 58 games and Casa Pia's last 58.

Result probabilities: Estoril 64% | Draw 20% | Casa Pia 15%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 1.55 | Draw 4.93 | Casa Pia 6.54. The model has a clear lean to Estoril (64%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Estoril at 64% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.28 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Estoril's last 10 home games and Casa Pia's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Estoril 80% (last 10 home games) | Casa Pia 40% (last 10 away games).

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