🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Stalemate at Estoril's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 25, as Estoril and Casa Pia drew 0-0 in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 2.25 xG and Casa Pia 1.03 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Estoril fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Casa Pia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 1.37 / defence 1.15 against Casa Pia attack 0.76 / defence 1.09, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estoril 64% | Draw 20% | Casa Pia 15%, with Estoril to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 71%, Casa Pia 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estoril's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Casa Pia's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Estoril 1.36 PPG, Casa Pia 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Estoril (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.69 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Casa Pia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights