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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 25

Kick-off

Sat 7 Mar 2026

20:30

Venue

Estádio António Coimbra da Mota

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Estoril Win

64%

Estoril

1.55

20%

Draw

4.93

15%

Casa Pia

6.54

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 1

9.8%

Home win

Most likely

2 – 0

9.6%

Home win

1 – 1

8.7%

Draw

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.25

Estoril xG

Total xG

3.28

1.03

Casa Pia xG

64%
20%
15%
EstorilDrawCasa Pia

1.55

64%

Home win

4.93

20%

Draw

6.54

15%

Away win

Goals Markets

84%

Over 1.5

1.19

16%

Under 1.5

6.25

64%

Over 2.5

1.56

36%

Under 2.5

2.78

42%

Over 3.5

2.38

58%

Under 3.5

1.72

23%

Over 4.5

4.35

77%

Under 4.5

1.30

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

58%

BTTS Yes

1.72

42%

BTTS No

2.38

Clean Sheet

36%

Estoril

2.79

10%

Casa Pia

9.54

Win to Nil

23%

Estoril

4.33

2%

Casa Pia

62.40

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.8 3.9 2.0 0.7 0.2
1 8.5 8.7 4.5 1.5 0.4 0.1
2 9.6 9.8 5.0 1.7 0.4 0.1
3 7.2 7.4 3.8 1.3 0.3 0.1
4 4.0 4.2 2.1 0.7 0.2
5 1.8 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.255
λ Away (xG) 1.026
Total xG 3.281
League avg home goals 1.508
League avg away goals 1.174
Estoril attack strength 1.373
Estoril defence strength 1.154
Casa Pia attack strength 0.757
Casa Pia defence strength 1.089
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 58 / 58