Estoril vs Benfica – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Benfica (73%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Estoril face Benfica.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 21 as Estoril welcome Benfica to Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota. Kick-off is set for Sunday 7 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Estoril stand at 0W 2D 8L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Estoril, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Estoril have posted 0W 3D 7L at Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota — 0.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Benfica — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benfica's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Benfica are 2.30 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 0.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Estoril register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Benfica in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Benfica have the better historical record — 10 wins from 10 previous contests against 0 for Estoril.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2026, ended 1–2 with Benfica winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Benfica have won 10 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Estoril trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Benfica trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 57% versus Benfica 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Estoril 59% | Benfica 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 0.90 xG and Benfica 2.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 0.825 / defence 1.195 | Benfica attack 1.606 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 1.315. Benfica have an above-average attack strength of 1.606 — the away xG of 2.52 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Estoril games / 44 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estoril 11% | Draw 16% | Benfica 73%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 9.09 | Draw 6.25 | Benfica 1.37. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (73%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.42 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Estoril 60% | Benfica 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 11% | Draw 16% | Benfica 73% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 55% | xG Estoril 0.90 / Benfica 2.52 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 0.825 / def 1.195 | Benfica attack 1.606 / def 0.857 | league avg home 1.274 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: Benfica (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
2.52
Benfica xG
55%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estoril vs Benfica kick off?
Estoril vs Benfica is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 7 February 2027 at Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota.
Where is Estoril vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs Benfica part of?
Estoril vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 11% chance of winning, Benfica a 73% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Estoril and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Estoril vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Benfica?
Record (10 meetings): Estoril 0W | Draws 0 | Benfica 10W.
What form are Estoril and Benfica in?
Estoril (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Benfica (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Estoril's attack rating (0.82) and Benfica's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Estoril's defence, projects 2.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-3 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
11%
8.87
16%
6.22
73%
1.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
0 – 3
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Estoril xG
Total xG
3.42
2.52
Benfica xG
8.87
11%
Home win
6.22
16%
Draw
1.38
73%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
8%
12.48
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
1%
110.62
30%
3.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 8.2 | 10.4 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.8 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.5 |
| 2 | 1.3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Estoril and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Estoril and 2.52 for Benfica, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs Benfica?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Estoril's recent record stands at 10W 11D 23L from 44 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Estoril is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benfica, meanwhile, have gone 31W 12D 1L across 44 games — 2.39 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Benfica is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Benfica by 1.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Estoril heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Estoril have managed 6W 7D 9L from 22 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Benfica's away record stands at 16W 5D 1L across 22 trips, a 2.41 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Estoril are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.30 scored and 0.75 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Blended
Benfica
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estoril and Benfica in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 10W 11D 23L in their last 44 games (0.93 PPG), while Benfica have gone 31W 12D 1L in their last 44 (2.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 1.14 PPG; Benfica away: 2.41 PPG.
Have Estoril or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estoril have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Benfica in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Estoril and Benfica runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 31 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Benfica have taken the last 10 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2022, when Benfica won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Estoril's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Estoril
0
Draws
10
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Benfica?
From 10 meetings on record, Estoril have won 0, Benfica have won 10, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2026, when Benfica 2-1 Estoril.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 10 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estoril 68%, Benfica 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for Estoril and 77% for Benfica. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benfica in 46%; Estoril have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estoril play Benfica?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Estoril's games and 54% of Benfica's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estoril vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Estoril's matches and 77% of Benfica's.
Do Estoril and Benfica tend to score early?
Estoril have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Benfica in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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