Estoril vs Benfica – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Benfica (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Estoril face Benfica.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 21 as Estoril welcome Benfica to Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota. Kick-off is set for Sunday 7 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Estoril stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Estoril haven't played a Primeira Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Estoril have posted 4W 2D 4L at Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Estoril are significantly better at Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota than their overall form suggests.
Benfica — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Benfica haven't played a Primeira Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Benfica's form when playing away from home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Benfica are 1.60 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Benfica have the better historical record — 9 wins from 10 previous contests against 0 for Estoril.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2026, ended 1–3 with Benfica winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Benfica have won 9 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Estoril trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Benfica trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 59% versus Benfica 59%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Estoril 62% | Benfica 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.31 xG and Benfica 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 0.989 / defence 1.145 | Benfica attack 1.211 / defence 0.875. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.127. Benfica have an above-average attack strength of 1.211 — the away xG of 1.56 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 Estoril games / 34 Benfica games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Estoril 32% | Draw 25% | Benfica 43%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 3.12 | Draw 4.00 | Benfica 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Estoril 70% | Benfica 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estoril vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estoril 32% | Draw 25% | Benfica 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Estoril 1.31 / Benfica 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Estoril attack 0.989 / def 1.145 | Benfica attack 1.211 / def 0.875 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Benfica (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Estoril xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Benfica xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estoril vs Benfica kick off?
Estoril vs Benfica is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 7 February 2027 at Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota.
Where is Estoril vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota.
What competition is Estoril vs Benfica part of?
Estoril vs Benfica is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Estoril vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Estoril a 32% chance of winning, Benfica a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estoril vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Estoril and Benfica will score (BTTS).
Will Estoril vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Benfica?
Record (10 meetings): Estoril 0W | Draws 1 | Benfica 9W.
What form are Estoril and Benfica in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Estoril (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Estoril vs Benfica?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Estoril's attack rating (0.99) and Benfica's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Estoril's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
32%
3.14
25%
4.05
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Estoril xG
Total xG
2.87
1.56
Benfica xG
3.14
32%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
21%
4.78
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
7%
14.98
12%
8.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 8.9 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.6 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.6 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estoril vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Estoril and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Estoril and 1.56 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Estoril vs Benfica?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Estoril's recent record stands at 10W 9D 15L from 34 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-L in the last five. Estoril haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Benfica, meanwhile, have gone 23W 11D 0L across 34 games — 2.35 PPG, with W-W-D-D-W in their last five. Benfica haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Benfica by 1.20 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Estoril heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Estoril have managed 6W 5D 6L from 17 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Benfica's away record stands at 12W 5D 0L across 17 trips, a 2.41 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Estoril are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.18 scored and 0.74 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estoril
Pre-Season
Benfica
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estoril and Benfica in coming into this match?
Estoril have gone 10W 9D 15L in their last 34 games (1.15 PPG), while Benfica have gone 23W 11D 0L in their last 34 (2.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estoril at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (2.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estoril at home: 1.35 PPG; Benfica away: 2.41 PPG.
Have Estoril or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estoril have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Benfica in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Estoril and Benfica runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Benfica have taken the last 9 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2022, when Benfica won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Estoril's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Estoril
1
Draws
9
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Estoril and Benfica?
From 10 meetings on record, Estoril have won 0, Benfica have won 9, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Estoril and Benfica last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Estoril 1-3 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Estoril and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Estoril are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estoril 71%, Benfica 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Estoril and 71% for Benfica. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Benfica in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estoril home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estoril play Benfica?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Estoril's games and 59% of Benfica's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Estoril vs Benfica usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Estoril's matches and 71% of Benfica's.
Do Estoril and Benfica tend to score early?
Estoril have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Benfica in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.