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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Benfica cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Estoril.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Benfica beat Estoril 1-3 at Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota, Regular Season - 34, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Estoril 1.15 xG and Benfica 1.84 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Benfica outscored their 1.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estoril attack 1.02 / defence 1.22 against Benfica attack 1.33 / defence 0.78, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Estoril 24% | Draw 23% | Benfica 53%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estoril 66%, Benfica 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Estoril's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Benfica's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.34 PPG against 1.27. That form edge translated into the three points. Estoril (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Benfica (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.88 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights