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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model favours Benfica (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Estoril face Benfica.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Primeira Liga clash, Regular Season - 34 as Estoril welcome Benfica to Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 May 2026 at 20:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Estoril stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

In front of their own supporters this season, Estoril have posted 4W 3D 3L at Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Estoril are significantly better at Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota than their overall form suggests.

Benfica — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

Benfica's form when playing away from home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Benfica are 1.60 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

H2H

Despite the anticipated home advantage, Benfica have the better historical record — 8 wins from 9 previous contests against 0 for Estoril.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Jan 2026, ended 1–3 with Benfica winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Benfica have won 8 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

In-Play Data

Estoril trading profile (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

Benfica trading profile (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estoril 57% versus Benfica 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Estoril 66% | Benfica 69%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Estoril 1.15 xG and Benfica 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estoril attack 1.017 / defence 1.215 | Benfica attack 1.330 / defence 0.775. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.136. Benfica's defence strength of 0.775 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Benfica have an above-average attack strength of 1.330 — the away xG of 1.84 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 67 Estoril games / 67 Benfica games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Estoril 24% | Draw 23% | Benfica 53%. Fair-value odds: Estoril 4.17 | Draw 4.35 | Benfica 1.89. Benfica hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benfica offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Estoril 70% | Benfica 70% BTTS from recent games.

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