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Shock result as Tondela defy the odds to beat Casa Pia 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Tondela beat Casa Pia 0-1 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 32, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 1.57 xG and Tondela 0.96 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Casa Pia fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.82 / defence 1.00 against Tondela attack 0.83 / defence 1.29, drawn from 65/31 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 51% | Draw 25% | Tondela 23%, with Casa Pia to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Tondela win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 48%, Tondela 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Casa Pia's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Tondela's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Casa Pia 0.84 PPG, Tondela 0.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tondela win broke the near-deadlock. Casa Pia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward. Tondela (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights