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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 32

Kick-off

Sun 3 May 2026

15:30

Venue

Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Casa Pia Win

51%

Casa Pia

1.94

25%

Draw

3.95

23%

Tondela

4.30

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 0

12.5%

Home win

Most likely

1 – 1

12.0%

Draw

2 – 0

9.8%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.57

Casa Pia xG

Total xG

2.53

0.96

Tondela xG

51%
25%
23%
Casa PiaDrawTondela

1.94

51%

Home win

3.95

25%

Draw

4.30

23%

Away win

Goals Markets

72%

Over 1.5

1.39

28%

Under 1.5

3.57

46%

Over 2.5

2.17

54%

Under 2.5

1.85

25%

Over 3.5

4.00

75%

Under 3.5

1.33

11%

Over 4.5

9.09

89%

Under 4.5

1.12

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

49%

BTTS Yes

2.04

51%

BTTS No

1.96

Clean Sheet

38%

Casa Pia

2.62

21%

Tondela

4.80

Win to Nil

20%

Casa Pia

5.10

5%

Tondela

20.67

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.9 7.7 3.7 1.2 0.3 0.1
1 12.5 12.0 5.8 1.9 0.4 0.1
2 9.8 9.4 4.5 1.5 0.4 0.1
3 5.1 4.9 2.4 0.8 0.2
4 2.0 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1
5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.569
λ Away (xG) 0.964
Total xG 2.533
League avg home goals 1.477
League avg away goals 1.161
Casa Pia attack strength 0.824
Casa Pia defence strength 0.997
Tondela attack strength 0.833
Tondela defence strength 1.288
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 65 / 31