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Stalemate at Casa Pia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 16, as Casa Pia and Guimaraes drew 0-0 in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 1.11 xG and Guimaraes 1.29 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Casa Pia fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Guimaraes landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.90 / defence 1.31 against Guimaraes attack 0.76 / defence 0.90, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 32% | Draw 28% | Guimaraes 40%, with Guimaraes to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 45%, Guimaraes 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Casa Pia's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Guimaraes's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Casa Pia 1.18 PPG, Guimaraes 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Casa Pia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Guimaraes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights