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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 16

Kick-off

Sun 28 Dec 2025

15:30

Venue

Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Guimaraes Win

32%

Casa Pia

3.12

28%

Draw

3.63

40%

Guimaraes

2.47

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

13.0%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

11.7%

Away win

1 – 0

10.1%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.11

Casa Pia xG

Total xG

2.40

1.29

Guimaraes xG

32%
28%
40%
Casa PiaDrawGuimaraes

3.12

32%

Home win

3.63

28%

Draw

2.47

40%

Away win

Goals Markets

69%

Over 1.5

1.45

31%

Under 1.5

3.23

43%

Over 2.5

2.33

57%

Under 2.5

1.75

22%

Over 3.5

4.55

78%

Under 3.5

1.28

10%

Over 4.5

10.00

90%

Under 4.5

1.11

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

49%

BTTS Yes

2.06

51%

BTTS No

1.95

Clean Sheet

28%

Casa Pia

3.62

33%

Guimaraes

3.05

Win to Nil

9%

Casa Pia

11.29

13%

Guimaraes

7.54

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 9.1 11.7 7.5 3.2 1.0 0.3
1 10.1 13.0 8.4 3.6 1.2 0.3
2 5.6 7.2 4.7 2.0 0.6 0.2
3 2.1 2.7 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.1
4 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1
5 0.1 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.114
λ Away (xG) 1.286
Total xG 2.400
League avg home goals 1.363
League avg away goals 1.294
Casa Pia attack strength 0.903
Casa Pia defence strength 1.315
Guimaraes attack strength 0.756
Guimaraes defence strength 0.904
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 49 / 49