Casa Pia 0-0 Vitória SC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Vitória SC at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Casa Pia vs Vitória SC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Casa Pia and Vitória SC meet at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 December 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
Casa Pia (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Casa Pia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Casa Pia's home record at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Vitória SC's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Vitória SC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vitória SC's away record: 5W 0D 5L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Vitória SC are 0.70 PPG clear of Casa Pia in recent Primeira Liga fixtures (1.40 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Casa Pia lead 2W to 1W over the last 6 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 6 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2025, ended 0–1 with Vitória SC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Casa Pia — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Vitória SC — key trading statistics (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 55% versus Vitória SC 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Casa Pia 45% | Vitória SC 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 1.11 xG and Vitória SC 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.903 / defence 1.315 | Vitória SC attack 0.756 / defence 0.904. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.294. Data: 49 Casa Pia games / 49 Vitória SC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Casa Pia 32% | Draw 28% | Vitória SC 40%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | Vitória SC 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Vitória SC as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vitória SC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.40 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Casa Pia 60% | Vitória SC 10% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Casa Pia vs Vitória SC | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Dec 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Casa Pia 32% | Draw 28% | Vitória SC 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Casa Pia 1.11 / Vitória SC 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Casa Pia attack 0.903 / def 1.315 | Vitória SC attack 0.756 / def 0.904 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Vitória SC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Casa Pia xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Vitória SC xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Casa Pia vs Vitória SC kick off?
Casa Pia vs Vitória SC kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 28 December 2025 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What was the final score in Casa Pia vs Vitória SC?
Casa Pia 0 - 0 Vitória SC.
Where is Casa Pia vs Vitória SC being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What competition is Casa Pia vs Vitória SC part of?
Casa Pia vs Vitória SC is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Casa Pia vs Vitória SC?
Our statistical model gives Casa Pia a 32% chance of winning, Vitória SC a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Vitória SC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs Vitória SC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Casa Pia and Vitória SC will score (BTTS).
Will Casa Pia vs Vitória SC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Vitória SC?
Record (6 meetings): Casa Pia 2W | Draws 3 | Vitória SC 1W.
What form are Casa Pia and Vitória SC in?
Casa Pia (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Vitória SC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Casa Pia's attack at 0.90x the league average against Vitória SC's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.11 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vitória SC's attack (0.76x) against Casa Pia's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitória SC Win
32%
3.12
28%
3.63
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Casa Pia xG
Total xG
2.40
1.29
Vitória SC xG
3.12
32%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
9%
11.29
13%
7.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.7 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Casa Pia vs Vitória SC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Casa Pia and Vitória SC expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Casa Pia and 1.29 for Vitória SC, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Casa Pia vs Vitória SC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 49 outings, Casa Pia have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 15W 13D 21L record — D-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Casa Pia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vitória SC's form line: 20W 15D 14L from 49 games, 1.53 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-L. The sample for Vitória SC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Casa Pia against 1.53 for Vitória SC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Casa Pia have posted 1.29 PPG from 24 outings (8W 7D 9L).
On the road, Vitória SC have gone 8W 7D 9L from 24 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Casa Pia are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Vitória SC are on 1.29 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Vitória SC in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Casa Pia
Blended
Vitória SC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Casa Pia and Vitória SC in coming into this match?
Casa Pia have gone 15W 13D 21L in their last 49 games (1.18 PPG), while Vitória SC have gone 20W 15D 14L in their last 49 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Casa Pia at home or Vitória SC away?
Casa Pia's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Casa Pia at home: 1.29 PPG; Vitória SC away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Casa Pia or Vitória SC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Casa Pia have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Vitória SC in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Casa Pia have gone 0W 4D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Vitória SC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Casa Pia
4
Draws
1
Vitória SC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Vitória SC?
From 8 meetings on record, Casa Pia have won 3, Vitória SC have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Casa Pia and Vitória SC last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Vitória SC 0-1 Casa Pia.
Who has won more matches between Casa Pia and Vitória SC?
Casa Pia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Casa Pia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Vitória SC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Casa Pia 62%, Vitória SC 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Casa Pia and 29% for Vitória SC.
On the defensive side: Vitória SC in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Casa Pia home games / Vitória SC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Casa Pia play Vitória SC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Casa Pia's recent matches and 33% of Vitória SC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Casa Pia vs Vitória SC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Casa Pia's recent games and 29% of Vitória SC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Casa Pia and Vitória SC tend to score early?
Casa Pia have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Vitória SC in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Casa Pia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 16, as Casa Pia and Vitória SC drew 0-0 in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 1.11 xG and Vitória SC 1.29 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Casa Pia fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Vitória SC landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.90 / defence 1.31 against Vitória SC attack 0.76 / defence 0.90, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 32% | Draw 28% | Vitória SC 40%, with Vitória SC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 45%, Vitória SC 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Casa Pia's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Vitória SC's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Casa Pia 1.18 PPG, Vitória SC 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Casa Pia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Vitória SC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.