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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Casa Pia and Famalicao share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Casa Pia and Famalicao finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 6, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 0.93 xG and Famalicao 1.27 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.82 / defence 1.10 against Famalicao attack 0.93 / defence 0.89, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 27% | Draw 29% | Famalicao 44%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 41%, Famalicao 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Casa Pia's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Famalicao's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Casa Pia 1.31 PPG, Famalicao 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights