Casa Pia 1-1 Famalicao – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Famalicao at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Casa Pia vs Famalicao fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Famalicao make the trip to Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior to face Casa Pia in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Sunday 21 September 2025 at 20:30 UTC.
Form
Casa Pia (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Casa Pia have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Casa Pia have gone 5W 0D 5L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Famalicao have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Famalicao have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Famalicao away from home this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Casa Pia against 1.40 for Famalicao. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Casa Pia lead 2W to 3W over the last 6 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2025, ended 1–2 with Famalicao winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Casa Pia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Famalicao goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 51% versus Famalicao 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Casa Pia 41% | Famalicao 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 0.93 xG and Famalicao 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 0.816 / defence 1.100 | Famalicao attack 0.933 / defence 0.886. League average goals — home 1.281 / away 1.234. Data: 39 Casa Pia games / 39 Famalicao games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Casa Pia 27% | Draw 29% | Famalicao 44%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 3.70 | Draw 3.45 | Famalicao 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Famalicao as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Famalicao if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Casa Pia 50% | Famalicao 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Casa Pia vs Famalicao | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Sep 2025, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Casa Pia 27% | Draw 29% | Famalicao 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Casa Pia 0.93 / Famalicao 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Casa Pia attack 0.816 / def 1.100 | Famalicao attack 0.933 / def 0.886 | league avg home 1.281 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Casa Pia xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Famalicao xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Casa Pia vs Famalicao kick off?
Casa Pia vs Famalicao kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 21 September 2025 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What was the final score in Casa Pia vs Famalicao?
Casa Pia 1 - 1 Famalicao.
Where is Casa Pia vs Famalicao being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What competition is Casa Pia vs Famalicao part of?
Casa Pia vs Famalicao is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Casa Pia vs Famalicao?
Our statistical model gives Casa Pia a 27% chance of winning, Famalicao a 44% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs Famalicao?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Casa Pia and Famalicao will score (BTTS).
Will Casa Pia vs Famalicao have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Famalicao?
Record (6 meetings): Casa Pia 2W | Draws 1 | Famalicao 3W.
What form are Casa Pia and Famalicao in?
Casa Pia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Famalicao (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Casa Pia's attack at 0.82x the league average against Famalicao's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Famalicao's attack (0.93x) against Casa Pia's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
27%
3.69
29%
3.48
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Casa Pia xG
Total xG
2.19
1.27
Famalicao xG
3.69
27%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
8%
13.09
17%
5.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 14.1 | 9.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Casa Pia vs Famalicao?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Casa Pia and Famalicao expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Casa Pia and 1.27 for Famalicao, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Casa Pia vs Famalicao?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Casa Pia come into this having played 39 games, going 14W 9D 16L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Casa Pia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Famalicao sit at 1.46 PPG from 39 outings (15W 12D 12L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Famalicao, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for Casa Pia against 1.46 for Famalicao. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Casa Pia's home form reads 8W 4D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Famalicao have taken 1.32 points per game from 19 outings (7W 4D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Casa Pia are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Famalicao are on 1.28 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Famalicao in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Casa Pia
Early Season
Famalicao
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Casa Pia and Famalicao in coming into this match?
Casa Pia have gone 14W 9D 16L in their last 39 games (1.31 PPG), while Famalicao have gone 15W 12D 12L in their last 39 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Casa Pia at home or Famalicao away?
Casa Pia's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Casa Pia at home: 1.47 PPG; Famalicao away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Casa Pia or Famalicao been keeping clean sheets recently?
Casa Pia have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Famalicao in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Casa Pia have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Famalicao — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Casa Pia
2
Draws
4
Famalicao
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Famalicao?
From 8 meetings on record, Casa Pia have won 2, Famalicao have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Casa Pia and Famalicao last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Famalicao 2-0 Casa Pia.
Who has won more matches between Casa Pia and Famalicao?
Famalicao have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Casa Pia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Famalicao are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Casa Pia 58%, Famalicao 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Casa Pia) and 63% (Famalicao).
On the defensive side: Famalicao in 32%; Casa Pia have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Casa Pia home games / Famalicao away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Casa Pia play Famalicao?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Casa Pia's games and 63% of Famalicao's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Casa Pia vs Famalicao usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Casa Pia's recent games and 63% of Famalicao's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Casa Pia and Famalicao tend to score early?
Casa Pia have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Famalicao in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Casa Pia and Famalicao share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Casa Pia and Famalicao finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 6, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 0.93 xG and Famalicao 1.27 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.82 / defence 1.10 against Famalicao attack 0.93 / defence 0.89, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 27% | Draw 29% | Famalicao 44%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 41%, Famalicao 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Casa Pia's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Famalicao's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Casa Pia 1.31 PPG, Famalicao 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.