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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Casa Pia and Famalicao share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Casa Pia and Famalicao finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 17, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 1.48 xG and Famalicao 1.32 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 0.97 / defence 0.97 against Famalicao attack 1.16 / defence 1.10, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 41% | Draw 26% | Famalicao 33%, with Casa Pia to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 42%, Famalicao 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Casa Pia's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Famalicao's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Casa Pia 1.22 PPG, Famalicao 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights