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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 17

Kick-off

Sun 5 Jan 2025

18:00

Venue

Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Casa Pia Win

41%

Casa Pia

2.46

26%

Draw

3.84

33%

Famalicao

3.00

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

11.9%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

9.0%

Home win

2 – 1

8.8%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.48

Casa Pia xG

Total xG

2.79

1.32

Famalicao xG

41%
26%
33%
Casa PiaDrawFamalicao

2.46

41%

Home win

3.84

26%

Draw

3.00

33%

Away win

Goals Markets

77%

Over 1.5

1.30

23%

Under 1.5

4.35

53%

Over 2.5

1.89

47%

Under 2.5

2.13

31%

Over 3.5

3.23

69%

Under 3.5

1.45

15%

Over 4.5

6.67

85%

Under 4.5

1.18

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

57%

BTTS Yes

1.76

43%

BTTS No

2.32

Clean Sheet

27%

Casa Pia

3.73

23%

Famalicao

4.38

Win to Nil

11%

Casa Pia

9.18

8%

Famalicao

13.14

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.1 8.1 5.3 2.3 0.8 0.2
1 9.0 11.9 7.8 3.4 1.1 0.3
2 6.7 8.8 5.8 2.5 0.8 0.2
3 3.3 4.3 2.8 1.2 0.4 0.1
4 1.2 1.6 1.1 0.5 0.2
5 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.477
λ Away (xG) 1.316
Total xG 2.793
League avg home goals 1.378
League avg away goals 1.170
Casa Pia attack strength 0.974
Casa Pia defence strength 0.970
Famalicao attack strength 1.160
Famalicao defence strength 1.100
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 50 / 50