Casa Pia 1-1 Benfica – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Benfica (57%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Casa Pia face Benfica.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Benfica travel to Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior to take on Casa Pia in Primeira Liga (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Monday 6 April 2026 at 21:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Casa Pia stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Casa Pia at home: 2W 6D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Benfica have recorded 8W 2D 0L — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Benfica's form when playing away from home: 7W 3D 0L across their last 10 road games (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Benfica are 1.60 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
Benfica have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against 1 for Casa Pia.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 Nov 2025, ended Casa Pia 2–2 Benfica — a draw.
Benfica have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Patterns
Casa Pia in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Benfica in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 71%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Casa Pia 53% versus Benfica 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Casa Pia 47% | Benfica 70%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Casa Pia surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while Benfica have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 71% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Casa Pia 1.05 xG and Benfica 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Casa Pia attack 1.003 / defence 1.233 | Benfica attack 1.313 / defence 0.685. League average goals — home 1.536 / away 1.165. Benfica bring a tight defence (rating 0.685, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Casa Pia's projected output down. Benfica have an above-average attack rating of 1.313, which lifts their away xG to 1.89. Casa Pia's defence rating of 1.233 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Benfica's projected output up. Data: built from Casa Pia's last 60 games and Benfica's last 61.
Result probabilities: Casa Pia 21% | Draw 22% | Benfica 57%. Fair-value odds: Casa Pia 4.79 | Draw 4.48 | Benfica 1.76. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Benfica as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.94 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Casa Pia's last 10 home games and Benfica's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Casa Pia 80% (last 10 home games) | Benfica 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Casa Pia vs Benfica | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 28 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior • Kick-off: Monday 6 April 2026 at 21:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Casa Pia 21% | Draw 22% | Benfica 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Casa Pia 1.05 / Benfica 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: Casa Pia attack 1.003 / def 1.233 | Benfica attack 1.313 / def 0.685 | league avg home 1.536 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Benfica (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Casa Pia xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Benfica xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Casa Pia vs Benfica FAQs
What time does Casa Pia vs Benfica kick off?
Casa Pia vs Benfica kicked off at 21:45 UK time on Monday 6 April 2026 at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What was the final score in Casa Pia vs Benfica?
Casa Pia 1 - 1 Benfica.
Where is Casa Pia vs Benfica being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior.
What competition is Casa Pia vs Benfica part of?
Casa Pia vs Benfica is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 28) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Casa Pia vs Benfica?
Our statistical model gives Casa Pia a 21% chance of winning, Benfica a 57% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Benfica the favourite.
Will both teams score in Casa Pia vs Benfica?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Casa Pia and Benfica will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Casa Pia vs Benfica have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Casa Pia's attack at 1.00x the league average against Benfica's defence at 0.69x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Benfica's attack versus Casa Pia's defence, projects 1.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Casa Pia's last 60 games and Benfica's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
21%
4.79
22%
4.48
57%
1.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Casa Pia xG
Total xG
2.94
1.89
Benfica xG
4.79
21%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
1.76
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
15%
6.59
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
3%
31.56
20%
5.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 10.0 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Casa Pia vs Benfica Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Casa Pia vs Benfica?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Casa Pia and Benfica expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Casa Pia and 1.89 for Benfica, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Casa Pia vs Benfica?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Casa Pia come into this having played 60 games, going 17W 18D 25L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-L.
On the other side, Benfica sit at 2.42 PPG from 60 outings (44W 13D 3L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five.
Benfica carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.27 PPG clear of Casa Pia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Casa Pia's home form reads 10W 10D 9L across their last 29 home games, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Benfica have taken 2.38 points per game from their last 29 away games (21W 6D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benfica come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Casa Pia are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Benfica are on 2.37 scored and 0.72 conceded.
Defensively: Benfica in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Casa Pia
Blended
Benfica
Blended
Casa Pia (Home) vs Benfica (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Casa Pia
Blended
Benfica
Blended
❓ Casa Pia vs Benfica Form FAQs
What form are Casa Pia and Benfica in coming into this match?
Casa Pia have gone 17W 18D 25L in their last 60 games (1.15 PPG), while Benfica have gone 44W 13D 3L in their last 60 (2.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Casa Pia at home or Benfica away?
Benfica's away record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Casa Pia at home: 1.38 PPG; Benfica away: 2.38 PPG.
Have Casa Pia or Benfica been keeping clean sheets recently?
Casa Pia have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Benfica in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2022. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent was as recently as 17 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Aug 2026, when Benfica won Casa Pia 0-7 Benfica.
Casa Pia's record when hosting Benfica specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Casa Pia
3
Draws
5
Benfica
Recent Meetings
❓ Casa Pia vs Benfica H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Casa Pia and Benfica?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Casa Pia have won 1, Benfica have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Casa Pia and Benfica last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 August 2026: Casa Pia 0-7 Benfica.
Who has won more matches between Casa Pia and Benfica?
Benfica have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Casa Pia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Benfica are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Casa Pia 66%, Benfica 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Casa Pia) and 62% (Benfica).
On the defensive side: Benfica in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Casa Pia home games / Benfica away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Casa Pia vs Benfica Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Casa Pia and Benfica matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Casa Pia's games and 52% of Benfica's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Casa Pia and Benfica matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Casa Pia's recent games and 62% of Benfica's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Casa Pia and Benfica matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Casa Pia's recent matches and 72% of Benfica's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Casa Pia and Benfica share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 28, as Casa Pia and Benfica drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 1.05 xG and Benfica 1.89 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Benfica landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 1.00 / defence 1.23 against Benfica attack 1.31 / defence 0.69, drawn from 60/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 21% | Draw 22% | Benfica 57%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 47%, Benfica 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Casa Pia's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Benfica's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Benfica (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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