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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Casa Pia and Benfica share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior, Regular Season - 28, as Casa Pia and Benfica drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Casa Pia 1.05 xG and Benfica 1.89 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Benfica landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Casa Pia attack 1.00 / defence 1.23 against Benfica attack 1.31 / defence 0.69, drawn from 60/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Casa Pia 21% | Draw 22% | Benfica 57%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Casa Pia 47%, Benfica 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Casa Pia's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Benfica's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.42 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Benfica (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights