Portimonense 0-1 Pacos Ferreira – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Portimonense at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Portimonense vs Pacos Ferreira encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Municipal de Portimão plays host to Portimonense versus Pacos Ferreira in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Sunday 29 August 2021 at 20:30 UTC.
Form
Portimonense (all games): 2W 0D 1L across 3 Primeira Liga fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 0.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Portimonense have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pacos Ferreira have collected 1.00 PPG across 3 Primeira Liga outings this season: 1W 0D 2L. Last five: W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Pacos Ferreira have played only a handful of Primeira Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Portimonense's favour (2.00 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading
Portimonense half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Pacos Ferreira half-time and goal-timing data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Portimonense 0% | Pacos Ferreira 33%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Portimonense 33% | Pacos Ferreira 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portimonense 1.16 xG and Pacos Ferreira 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portimonense attack 0.781 / defence 1.148 | Pacos Ferreira attack 0.728 / defence 1.362. League average goals — home 1.086 / away 1.038. Portimonense's attack strength of 0.781 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Pacos Ferreira bring a strong defensive rating of 1.362 — this is suppressing Portimonense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 Portimonense games / 3 Pacos Ferreira games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Portimonense 38% | Draw 38% | Pacos Ferreira 23%. Fair-value odds: Portimonense 2.63 | Draw 2.63 | Pacos Ferreira 4.35. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 23% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Portimonense 0% | Pacos Ferreira 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portimonense vs Pacos Ferreira | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Estádio Municipal de Portimão • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Aug 2021, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portimonense 38% | Draw 38% | Pacos Ferreira 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 44% | xG Portimonense 1.16 / Pacos Ferreira 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Portimonense attack 0.781 / def 1.148 | Pacos Ferreira attack 0.728 / def 1.362 | league avg home 1.086 / away 1.038 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Portimonense xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Pacos Ferreira xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Portimonense vs Pacos Ferreira kick off?
Portimonense vs Pacos Ferreira kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 29 August 2021 at Estádio Municipal de Portimão.
What was the final score in Portimonense vs Pacos Ferreira?
Portimonense 0 - 1 Pacos Ferreira.
Where is Portimonense vs Pacos Ferreira being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Municipal de Portimão.
What competition is Portimonense vs Pacos Ferreira part of?
Portimonense vs Pacos Ferreira is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Portimonense vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our statistical model gives Portimonense a 38% chance of winning, Pacos Ferreira a 23% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Portimonense vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Portimonense and Pacos Ferreira will score (BTTS).
Will Portimonense vs Pacos Ferreira have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Portimonense and Pacos Ferreira?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Portimonense and Pacos Ferreira in?
Portimonense (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 0.33 | L5 W-L-W. Pacos Ferreira (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Portimonense's attack rating (0.78) and Pacos Ferreira's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Pacos Ferreira's attack (0.73x) against Portimonense's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Portimonense Win
38%
2.61
38%
2.62
23%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Portimonense xG
Total xG
2.02
0.87
Pacos Ferreira xG
2.61
38%
Home win
2.62
38%
Draw
4.26
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
16%
6.21
7%
13.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 11.5 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.3 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Portimonense vs Pacos Ferreira?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Portimonense and Pacos Ferreira expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Portimonense and 0.87 for Pacos Ferreira, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Portimonense vs Pacos Ferreira?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Portimonense come into this having played 3 games, going 2W 0D 1L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Portimonense, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Pacos Ferreira sit at 1.00 PPG from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L), a run that reads W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Pacos Ferreira, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Portimonense carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Pacos Ferreira — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Portimonense are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game recently; Pacos Ferreira are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Portimonense have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Portimonense have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portimonense
Early Season
Pacos Ferreira
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Portimonense and Pacos Ferreira in coming into this match?
Portimonense have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 games (2.00 PPG), while Pacos Ferreira have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
Have Portimonense or Pacos Ferreira been keeping clean sheets recently?
Portimonense have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Pacos Ferreira in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Portimonense go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Portimonense won 0-3 on 15 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Portimonense have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Pacos Ferreira — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Portimonense
1
Draws
1
Pacos Ferreira
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Portimonense and Pacos Ferreira?
From 4 meetings on record, Portimonense have won 2, Pacos Ferreira have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Portimonense and Pacos Ferreira last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2023, when Portimonense 1-0 Pacos Ferreira.
Who has won more matches between Portimonense and Pacos Ferreira?
Portimonense have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Portimonense see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Pacos Ferreira are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Portimonense) and 33% (Pacos Ferreira) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Portimonense) and 67% (Pacos Ferreira).
On the defensive side: Portimonense keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Pacos Ferreira in 33%; Portimonense have failed to score in 33% of games; Pacos Ferreira in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portimonense home games / Pacos Ferreira away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Portimonense play Pacos Ferreira?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Portimonense's recent matches and 33% of Pacos Ferreira's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Portimonense vs Pacos Ferreira usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Portimonense's recent games and 67% of Pacos Ferreira's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Portimonense and Pacos Ferreira tend to score early?
Portimonense have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Pacos Ferreira in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pacos Ferreira defy the odds to beat Portimonense 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pacos Ferreira beat Portimonense 0-1 at Estádio Municipal de Portimão, Regular Season - 4, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portimonense 1.16 xG and Pacos Ferreira 0.87 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Portimonense fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portimonense attack 0.78 / defence 1.15 against Pacos Ferreira attack 0.73 / defence 1.36, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Portimonense 38% | Draw 38% | Pacos Ferreira 23%, with Portimonense to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a Pacos Ferreira win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portimonense 33%, Pacos Ferreira 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 17%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Portimonense's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Pacos Ferreira's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Portimonense arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Pacos Ferreira winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Portimonense managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Pacos Ferreira conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.