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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Benfica and Sporting CP share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Estádio da Luz, Regular Season - 13, as Benfica and Sporting CP drew 1-1 in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 1.35 xG and Sporting CP 1.54 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.36 / defence 0.87 against Sporting CP attack 1.33 / defence 0.76, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Benfica 33% | Draw 26% | Sporting CP 41%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 67%, Sporting CP 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Benfica's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Sporting CP's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Benfica 2.35 PPG, Sporting CP 2.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Benfica (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.87 scoring average — below par going forward. Sporting CP (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.70 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights