🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Sporting CP at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benfica vs Sporting CP fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Benfica host Sporting CP at Estádio da Luz in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 5 December 2025 at 20:15 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Primeira Liga games this season, Benfica have gone 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: D W W D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Benfica's home record at Estádio da Luz: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Primeira Liga appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Sporting CP stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sporting CP, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Primeira Liga this season, Sporting CP have posted 9W 1D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

The form comparison is too close to call — 2.20 PPG (Benfica) versus 2.50 (Sporting CP). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Benfica have won 2, Sporting CP 3, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Benfica in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.

Sporting CP in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 50% versus Sporting CP 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Benfica 67% | Sporting CP 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 1.35 xG and Sporting CP 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.361 / defence 0.872 | Sporting CP attack 1.335 / defence 0.759. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.326. Benfica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.361 — their λ of 1.35 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Sporting CP's defence strength of 0.759 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Sporting CP have an above-average attack strength of 1.335 — the away xG of 1.54 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 Benfica games / 46 Sporting CP games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Benfica 33% | Draw 26% | Sporting CP 41%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Sporting CP 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Sporting CP are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sporting CP offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Benfica 70% | Sporting CP 40% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights