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Shock result as SC Braga defy the odds to beat Benfica 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Braga beat Benfica 1-2 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 17, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 1.69 xG and SC Braga 0.90 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. SC Braga outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.66 / defence 0.66 against SC Braga attack 1.18 / defence 0.73, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Benfica 56% | Draw 24% | SC Braga 20%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a SC Braga win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 58%, SC Braga 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Benfica's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here.

SC Braga's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.92. Form was overturned, with SC Braga winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Benfica (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights