🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Benfica run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Guimaraes.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Benfica beat Guimaraes 3-0 at Estádio da Luz, Regular Season - 27, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 2.39 xG and Guimaraes 0.90 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Guimaraes landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.34 / defence 0.85 against Guimaraes attack 0.92 / defence 1.20, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Benfica 70% | Draw 17% | Guimaraes 12%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 70%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 68%, Guimaraes 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Benfica's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.

Guimaraes's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.37 PPG against 1.43. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Guimaraes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights