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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 27

Kick-off

Sat 21 Mar 2026

18:00

Venue

Estádio da Luz

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Benfica Win

70%

Benfica

1.42

17%

Draw

5.81

12%

Guimaraes

8.12

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

2 – 0

10.7%

Home win

Most likely

2 – 1

9.6%

Home win

1 – 0

8.9%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

2.39

Benfica xG

Total xG

3.29

0.90

Guimaraes xG

70%
17%
12%
BenficaDrawGuimaraes

1.42

70%

Home win

5.81

17%

Draw

8.12

12%

Away win

Goals Markets

84%

Over 1.5

1.19

16%

Under 1.5

6.25

64%

Over 2.5

1.56

36%

Under 2.5

2.78

42%

Over 3.5

2.38

58%

Under 3.5

1.72

24%

Over 4.5

4.17

76%

Under 4.5

1.32

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

54%

BTTS Yes

1.86

46%

BTTS No

2.17

Clean Sheet

41%

Benfica

2.45

9%

Guimaraes

10.95

Win to Nil

29%

Benfica

3.48

1%

Guimaraes

88.85

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.7 3.3 1.5 0.4 0.1
1 8.9 8.0 3.6 1.1 0.2
2 10.7 9.6 4.3 1.3 0.3 0.1
3 8.5 7.6 3.4 1.0 0.2
4 5.1 4.6 2.1 0.6 0.1
5 2.4 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 2.393
λ Away (xG) 0.898
Total xG 3.291
League avg home goals 1.490
League avg away goals 1.154
Benfica attack strength 1.342
Benfica defence strength 0.849
Guimaraes attack strength 0.918
Guimaraes defence strength 1.196
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 60 / 60