Benfica vs Guimaraes – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Benfica edge out Guimaraes 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Benfica beat Guimaraes 1-0 at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Regular Season - 13, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Benfica 2.24 xG and Guimaraes 0.82 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Benfica fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Guimaraes landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benfica attack 1.76 / defence 0.78 against Guimaraes attack 0.94 / defence 0.89, drawn from 45/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Benfica 70% | Draw 18% | Guimaraes 12%, with Benfica to win its most likely call at 70%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benfica 62%, Guimaraes 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Benfica's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.

Guimaraes's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Benfica arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.80. Form held, and they took the win. Benfica (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.09 scoring average — below par going forward. Guimaraes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights