Benfica vs Guimaraes – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Benfica's attack rating (1.76) and Guimaraes's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 2.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Guimaraes's attack versus Benfica's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benfica Win
70%
1.43
18%
5.52
12%
8.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.24
Benfica xG
Total xG
3.06
0.82
Guimaraes xG
1.43
70%
Home win
5.52
18%
Draw
8.23
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
11%
9.42
Win to Nil
31%
3.24
1%
77.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.5 | 8.6 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.6 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.8 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benfica vs Guimaraes?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Benfica and Guimaraes expected to score?
The model projects 2.24 expected goals for Benfica and 0.82 for Guimaraes, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Benfica vs Guimaraes?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.