Benfica 1-0 Guimaraes – Result & Analysis

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Poisson model favours Benfica (70%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Benfica face Guimaraes.

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Analysis & Preview

A Primeira Liga encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Guimaraes travel to Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica to take on Benfica. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 December 2024, 18:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Benfica stand at 9W 1D 0L from 10 Primeira Liga matches — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 3.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Benfica, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Benfica have posted 10W 0D 0L at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 3.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica.

Guimaraes — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Primeira Liga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Guimaraes, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Guimaraes's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

On current form, Benfica have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.80 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H

The fixture history tells a clear story: Benfica have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 6 past contests while Guimaraes have managed just 0 wins.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Benfica and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Data

Benfica trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.

Guimaraes trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benfica 47% versus Guimaraes 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benfica 62% | Guimaraes 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Benfica 2.24 xG and Guimaraes 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benfica attack 1.763 / defence 0.775 | Guimaraes attack 0.945 / defence 0.890. League average goals — home 1.429 / away 1.114. Benfica carry an above-average attack strength of 1.763 — their λ of 2.24 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Benfica's defence rating of 0.775 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Benfica games / 46 Guimaraes games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Benfica 70% | Draw 18% | Guimaraes 12%. Fair-value odds: Benfica 1.43 | Draw 5.56 | Guimaraes 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Benfica (70%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Benfica at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Benfica 40% | Guimaraes 50% BTTS from recent games.

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