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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Santa Clara edge out AVS 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Santa Clara beat AVS 1-2 at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves, Regular Season - 21, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting AVS 0.92 xG and Santa Clara 1.20 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Santa Clara outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AVS attack 0.70 / defence 1.10 against Santa Clara attack 0.92 / defence 0.93, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it AVS 28% | Draw 31% | Santa Clara 41%, with Santa Clara to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AVS 30%, Santa Clara 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

AVS's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Santa Clara's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Santa Clara arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights