AVS 1-2 Santa Clara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Santa Clara at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AVS vs Santa Clara encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves plays host to AVS versus Santa Clara in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Saturday 8 February 2025 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AVS have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Primeira Liga outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for AVS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AVS at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Santa Clara's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Santa Clara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Santa Clara's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 4L across 9 road games this term (1.44 PPG). Away from home they average 1.22 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Santa Clara are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: AVS 0W, Santa Clara 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2024, ended 1–2 with Santa Clara winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
AVS half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Santa Clara half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AVS 50% versus Santa Clara 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (AVS 30% | Santa Clara 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AVS 0.92 xG and Santa Clara 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AVS attack 0.699 / defence 1.101 | Santa Clara attack 0.922 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.419 / away 1.177. AVS's attack strength of 0.699 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 20 AVS games / 20 Santa Clara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AVS 28% | Draw 31% | Santa Clara 41%. Fair-value odds: AVS 3.57 | Draw 3.23 | Santa Clara 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Santa Clara at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Santa Clara if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: AVS 40% | Santa Clara 44% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AVS vs Santa Clara | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Feb 2025, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AVS 28% | Draw 31% | Santa Clara 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG AVS 0.92 / Santa Clara 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: AVS attack 0.699 / def 1.101 | Santa Clara attack 0.922 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.419 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Santa Clara (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
AVS xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Santa Clara xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AVS vs Santa Clara kick off?
AVS vs Santa Clara kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 8 February 2025 at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves.
What was the final score in AVS vs Santa Clara?
AVS 1 - 2 Santa Clara.
Where is AVS vs Santa Clara being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves.
What competition is AVS vs Santa Clara part of?
AVS vs Santa Clara is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win AVS vs Santa Clara?
Our statistical model gives AVS a 28% chance of winning, Santa Clara a 41% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Santa Clara the favourite.
Will both teams score in AVS vs Santa Clara?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both AVS and Santa Clara will score (BTTS).
Will AVS vs Santa Clara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between AVS and Santa Clara?
Record (1 meetings): AVS 0W | Draws 0 | Santa Clara 1W.
What form are AVS and Santa Clara in?
AVS (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Santa Clara (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates AVS's attack at 0.70x the league average against Santa Clara's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Santa Clara's attack (0.92x) against AVS's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Santa Clara Win
28%
3.62
31%
3.24
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
AVS xG
Total xG
2.12
1.20
Santa Clara xG
3.62
28%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
8%
11.94
16%
6.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 14.4 | 8.6 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AVS vs Santa Clara?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are AVS and Santa Clara expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for AVS and 1.20 for Santa Clara, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for AVS vs Santa Clara?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AVS come into this having played 20 games, going 3W 9D 8L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-L. The sample for AVS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Santa Clara sit at 1.75 PPG from 20 outings (11W 2D 7L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Santa Clara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Santa Clara carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.85 PPG clear of AVS — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
AVS's home form reads 3W 3D 3L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.90 PPG overall — AVS are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Santa Clara have taken 1.44 points per game from 9 outings (4W 1D 4L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AVS are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Santa Clara are on 1.15 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Santa Clara in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AVS
Blended
Santa Clara
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AVS and Santa Clara in coming into this match?
AVS have gone 3W 9D 8L in their last 20 games (0.90 PPG), while Santa Clara have gone 11W 2D 7L in their last 20 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AVS at home or Santa Clara away?
Santa Clara's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AVS at home: 1.33 PPG; Santa Clara away: 1.44 PPG.
Have AVS or Santa Clara been keeping clean sheets recently?
AVS have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Santa Clara in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Santa Clara go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AVS have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Santa Clara — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
AVS
0
Draws
4
Santa Clara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AVS and Santa Clara?
From 4 meetings on record, AVS have won 0, Santa Clara have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AVS and Santa Clara last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when AVS 0-1 Santa Clara.
Who has won more matches between AVS and Santa Clara?
Santa Clara have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AVS see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Santa Clara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AVS 33%, Santa Clara 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 22% for AVS and 33% for Santa Clara.
On the defensive side: AVS keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; AVS have failed to score in 33% of games; Santa Clara in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AVS home games / Santa Clara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AVS play Santa Clara?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of AVS's recent matches and 44% of Santa Clara's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AVS vs Santa Clara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of AVS's recent games and 33% of Santa Clara's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AVS and Santa Clara tend to score early?
AVS have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Santa Clara in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Santa Clara edge out AVS 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Santa Clara beat AVS 1-2 at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves, Regular Season - 21, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AVS 0.92 xG and Santa Clara 1.20 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Santa Clara outscored their 1.20 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AVS attack 0.70 / defence 1.10 against Santa Clara attack 0.92 / defence 0.93, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AVS 28% | Draw 31% | Santa Clara 41%, with Santa Clara to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AVS 30%, Santa Clara 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AVS's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Santa Clara's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Santa Clara arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.