🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant SC Braga run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Arouca.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SC Braga beat Arouca 0-4 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 12, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 1.03 xG and SC Braga 1.78 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Arouca fell 1.0 short of their projected output. SC Braga outscored their 1.78 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 0.85 / defence 1.27 against SC Braga attack 1.08 / defence 0.91, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arouca 21% | Draw 24% | SC Braga 55%, with SC Braga to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 51%, SC Braga 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arouca's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

SC Braga's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, SC Braga arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.04. Form held, and they took the win. Arouca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SC Braga (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights