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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Arouca defy the odds to beat Guimaraes 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arouca beat Guimaraes 3-2 at Estádio Municipal de Arouca, Regular Season - 21, in the Primeira Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Arouca 1.25 xG and Guimaraes 1.28 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Arouca beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arouca attack 0.82 / defence 1.27 against Guimaraes attack 0.80 / defence 0.99, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Arouca 36% | Draw 27% | Guimaraes 37%, with Guimaraes to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Arouca win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arouca 54%, Guimaraes 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Arouca's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Guimaraes's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Guimaraes arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Arouca winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Arouca (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm. Guimaraes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights