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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 21

Kick-off

Sat 7 Feb 2026

20:30

Venue

Estádio Municipal de Arouca

Competition

Primeira Liga

Portugal

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Guimaraes Win

36%

Arouca

2.80

27%

Draw

3.73

37%

Guimaraes

2.67

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.7%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

10.2%

Away win

1 – 0

9.9%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.25

Arouca xG

Total xG

2.53

1.28

Guimaraes xG

36%
27%
37%
AroucaDrawGuimaraes

2.80

36%

Home win

3.73

27%

Draw

2.67

37%

Away win

Goals Markets

72%

Over 1.5

1.39

28%

Under 1.5

3.57

46%

Over 2.5

2.17

54%

Under 2.5

1.85

25%

Over 3.5

4.00

75%

Under 3.5

1.33

11%

Over 4.5

9.09

89%

Under 4.5

1.12

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

52%

BTTS Yes

1.94

48%

BTTS No

2.06

Clean Sheet

28%

Arouca

3.61

29%

Guimaraes

3.48

Win to Nil

10%

Arouca

10.12

11%

Guimaraes

9.29

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 7.9 10.2 6.6 2.8 0.9 0.2
1 9.9 12.7 8.2 3.5 1.1 0.3
2 6.2 7.9 5.1 2.2 0.7 0.2
3 2.6 3.3 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1
4 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1
5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.248
λ Away (xG) 1.285
Total xG 2.533
League avg home goals 1.542
League avg away goals 1.257
Arouca attack strength 0.818
Arouca defence strength 1.271
Guimaraes attack strength 0.804
Guimaraes defence strength 0.989
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 54 / 54