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Dominant Sporting CP run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Alverca.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sporting CP beat Alverca 1-4 at FC Alverca Sports Complex, Regular Season - 27, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alverca 0.71 xG and Sporting CP 1.76 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Sporting CP outscored their 1.76 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alverca attack 0.66 / defence 1.05 against Sporting CP attack 1.47 / defence 0.73, drawn from 26/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alverca 15% | Draw 23% | Sporting CP 63%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alverca 50%, Sporting CP 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alverca's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Sporting CP's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. Alverca (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sporting CP (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.15 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights