Alverca 1-4 Sporting CP – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sporting CP at 63% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alverca vs Sporting CP encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sporting CP make the trip to FC Alverca Sports Complex to face Alverca in Primeira Liga (matchday 27). The match kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 18:00 UK time.
Current Form
Alverca's record over their last 10 games: 2W 6D 2L (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Alverca have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sporting CP have collected 2.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Sporting CP's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 4D 0L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Sporting CP arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Alverca, 1 for Sporting CP and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 31 Oct 2025, ended Alverca 0–2 Sporting CP — a Sporting CP win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Alverca — key trading statistics (last 26 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Sporting CP — key trading statistics (last 26 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alverca 54% versus Sporting CP 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alverca 50% | Sporting CP 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alverca 0.71 xG and Sporting CP 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alverca attack 0.657 / defence 1.052 | Sporting CP attack 1.473 / defence 0.733. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.136. Alverca's attack rating of 0.657 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.71. Sporting CP bring a tight defence (rating 0.733, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Alverca's projected output down. Sporting CP have an above-average attack rating of 1.473, which lifts their away xG to 1.76. Data: built from Alverca's last 26 games and Sporting CP's last 59.
Result probabilities: Alverca 15% | Draw 23% | Sporting CP 63%. Fair-value odds: Alverca 6.84 | Draw 4.38 | Sporting CP 1.60. The model has a clear lean to Sporting CP (63%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sporting CP as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Alverca 40% (last 10 home games) | Sporting CP 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alverca vs Sporting CP | Competition: Primeira Liga, matchday 27 | Venue: FC Alverca Sports Complex • Kick-off: Sunday 22 March 2026 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alverca 15% | Draw 23% | Sporting CP 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Alverca 0.71 / Sporting CP 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Alverca attack 0.657 / def 1.052 | Sporting CP attack 1.473 / def 0.733 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Sporting CP (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.71
Alverca xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Sporting CP xG
42%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Alverca vs Sporting CP FAQs
What time does Alverca vs Sporting CP kick off?
Alverca vs Sporting CP kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 22 March 2026 at FC Alverca Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Alverca vs Sporting CP?
Alverca 1 - 4 Sporting CP.
Where is Alverca vs Sporting CP being played?
The match is being played at FC Alverca Sports Complex.
What competition is Alverca vs Sporting CP part of?
Alverca vs Sporting CP is a Primeira Liga fixture (matchday 27) (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Alverca vs Sporting CP?
Our statistical model gives Alverca a 15% chance of winning, Sporting CP a 63% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sporting CP the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alverca vs Sporting CP?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Alverca and Sporting CP will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Alverca vs Sporting CP have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Alverca's attack rating (0.66) and Sporting CP's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 0.71 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sporting CP's attack (1.47x) against Alverca's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.76.
These ratings are built from Alverca's last 26 games and Sporting CP's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 0-2 (13.1%), 1-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sporting CP Win
15%
6.84
23%
4.38
63%
1.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.1%
Away win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Alverca xG
Total xG
2.47
1.76
Sporting CP xG
6.84
15%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
1.60
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
17%
5.81
49%
2.04
Win to Nil
3%
39.73
31%
3.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 14.9 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.6 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Alverca vs Sporting CP Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Alverca vs Sporting CP?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Alverca and Sporting CP expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Alverca and 1.76 for Sporting CP, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Alverca vs Sporting CP?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 26 outings, Alverca have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 7W 8D 11L record — D-D-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Sporting CP's form line: 20W 5D 1L from 26 games, 2.50 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Sporting CP are the form team by 1.38 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Alverca.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Alverca have posted 1.46 PPG from their last 13 home games (5W 4D 4L).
On the road, Sporting CP have gone 9W 4D 0L from their last 13 away games — 2.38 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sporting CP come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Alverca are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Sporting CP are on 2.54 scored and 0.54 conceded.
Defensively: Sporting CP in 54% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 26 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alverca
Blended
Sporting CP
Blended
Alverca (Home) vs Sporting CP (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Alverca
Blended
Sporting CP
Blended
❓ Alverca vs Sporting CP Form FAQs
What form are Alverca and Sporting CP in coming into this match?
Alverca have gone 7W 8D 11L in their last 26 games (1.12 PPG), while Sporting CP have gone 20W 5D 1L in their last 26 (2.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alverca at home or Sporting CP away?
Sporting CP's away record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alverca at home: 1.46 PPG; Sporting CP away: 2.38 PPG.
Have Alverca or Sporting CP been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alverca have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Sporting CP in 54%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 3 H2H matches between Alverca and Sporting CP, the earliest from October 2025. All of them came in Primeira Liga. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Sporting CP have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sporting CP won Alverca 1-4 Sporting CP on 22 Mar 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Alverca
0
Draws
3
Sporting CP
Recent Meetings
❓ Alverca vs Sporting CP H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Alverca and Sporting CP?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Alverca have won 0, Sporting CP have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Alverca and Sporting CP last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Sporting CP 3-1 Alverca.
Who has won more matches between Alverca and Sporting CP?
Sporting CP have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Alverca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Sporting CP are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alverca 38%, Sporting CP 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Alverca) and 62% (Sporting CP).
On the defensive side: Alverca keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Sporting CP in 31%; Alverca have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alverca home games / Sporting CP away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Alverca vs Sporting CP Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Alverca and Sporting CP matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Alverca's recent matches and 69% of Sporting CP's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Alverca and Sporting CP matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Alverca's recent games and 62% of Sporting CP's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alverca and Sporting CP matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Alverca's recent matches and 85% of Sporting CP's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sporting CP run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Alverca.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sporting CP beat Alverca 1-4 at FC Alverca Sports Complex, Regular Season - 27, in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alverca 0.71 xG and Sporting CP 1.76 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Sporting CP outscored their 1.76 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alverca attack 0.66 / defence 1.05 against Sporting CP attack 1.47 / defence 0.73, drawn from 26/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alverca 15% | Draw 23% | Sporting CP 63%, with Sporting CP to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alverca 50%, Sporting CP 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alverca's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Sporting CP's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sporting CP arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. Alverca (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sporting CP (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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