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Shock result as Alverca defy the odds to beat Famalicao 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Alverca beat Famalicao 1-0 at FC Alverca Sports Complex, Regular Season - 17, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alverca 0.85 xG and Famalicao 1.30 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Famalicao landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alverca attack 0.71 / defence 1.20 against Famalicao attack 0.85 / defence 0.83, drawn from 16/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alverca 24% | Draw 29% | Famalicao 47%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Alverca win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alverca 56%, Famalicao 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alverca's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.

Famalicao's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Alverca 1.06 PPG, Famalicao 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alverca win broke the near-deadlock. Alverca (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Famalicao (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights