Alverca 1-0 Famalicao – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Famalicao at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alverca vs Famalicao fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
FC Alverca Sports Complex plays host to Alverca versus Famalicao in Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Sunday 4 January 2026 at 20:30 UTC.
Current Form
Alverca's overall Primeira Liga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Alverca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alverca's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 4L across 8 games at FC Alverca Sports Complex this term (1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Famalicao (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Primeira Liga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Famalicao, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Famalicao's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Primeira Liga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Alverca, 1.20 for Famalicao — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Alverca half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Famalicao half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alverca 44% versus Famalicao 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alverca 56% | Famalicao 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alverca 0.85 xG and Famalicao 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alverca attack 0.709 / defence 1.204 | Famalicao attack 0.846 / defence 0.831. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 1.274. Alverca's attack strength of 0.709 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 16 Alverca games / 50 Famalicao games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alverca 24% | Draw 29% | Famalicao 47%. Fair-value odds: Alverca 4.17 | Draw 3.45 | Famalicao 2.13. Famalicao hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Famalicao at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Famalicao if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Alverca 25% | Famalicao 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alverca vs Famalicao | Competition: Primeira Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: FC Alverca Sports Complex • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Jan 2026, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alverca 24% | Draw 29% | Famalicao 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Alverca 0.85 / Famalicao 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Alverca attack 0.709 / def 1.204 | Famalicao attack 0.846 / def 0.831 | league avg home 1.437 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Famalicao (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Alverca xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Famalicao xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alverca vs Famalicao kick off?
Alverca vs Famalicao kicked off at 20:30 on Sunday 4 January 2026 at FC Alverca Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Alverca vs Famalicao?
Alverca 1 - 0 Famalicao.
Where is Alverca vs Famalicao being played?
The match is being played at FC Alverca Sports Complex.
What competition is Alverca vs Famalicao part of?
Alverca vs Famalicao is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Primeira Liga (Portugal).
Who is favourite to win Alverca vs Famalicao?
Our statistical model gives Alverca a 24% chance of winning, Famalicao a 47% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Famalicao the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alverca vs Famalicao?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Alverca and Famalicao will score (BTTS).
Will Alverca vs Famalicao have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alverca and Famalicao?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Alverca and Famalicao in?
Alverca (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Famalicao (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Alverca's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Famalicao's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. Flip it around — Famalicao's attack (0.85x) against Alverca's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 16/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Famalicao Win
24%
4.18
29%
3.39
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Alverca xG
Total xG
2.15
1.30
Famalicao xG
4.18
24%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
7%
15.29
20%
5.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 15.2 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alverca vs Famalicao?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Alverca and Famalicao expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Alverca and 1.30 for Famalicao, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Alverca vs Famalicao?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Alverca's recent record stands at 5W 2D 9L from 16 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Alverca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Famalicao, meanwhile, have gone 6W 5D 5L across 16 games — 1.44 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Famalicao is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.06 PPG for Alverca against 1.44 for Famalicao. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Alverca have managed 3W 1D 3L from 7 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Famalicao's away record stands at 3W 3D 1L across 7 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Alverca are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Famalicao are on 1.25 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: Famalicao in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Primeira Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alverca
Blended
Famalicao
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alverca and Famalicao in coming into this match?
Alverca have gone 5W 2D 9L in their last 16 games (1.06 PPG), while Famalicao have gone 6W 5D 5L in their last 16 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alverca at home or Famalicao away?
Famalicao's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alverca at home: 1.43 PPG; Famalicao away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Alverca or Famalicao been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alverca have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Famalicao in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since January 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Primeira Liga. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Alverca
0
Draws
1
Famalicao
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alverca and Famalicao?
From 2 meetings on record, Alverca have won 1, Famalicao have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Alverca and Famalicao last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Famalicao 1-0 Alverca.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Alverca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Famalicao see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alverca 29%, Famalicao 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 43% for Alverca and 14% for Famalicao.
On the defensive side: Alverca keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Famalicao in 43%; Alverca have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alverca home games / Famalicao away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alverca play Famalicao?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Alverca's recent matches and 43% of Famalicao's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alverca vs Famalicao usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Alverca's recent games and 14% of Famalicao's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alverca and Famalicao tend to score early?
Alverca have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Famalicao in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Alverca defy the odds to beat Famalicao 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alverca beat Famalicao 1-0 at FC Alverca Sports Complex, Regular Season - 17, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alverca 0.85 xG and Famalicao 1.30 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Famalicao landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alverca attack 0.71 / defence 1.20 against Famalicao attack 0.85 / defence 0.83, drawn from 16/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alverca 24% | Draw 29% | Famalicao 47%, with Famalicao to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Alverca win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alverca 56%, Famalicao 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alverca's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Famalicao's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alverca 1.06 PPG, Famalicao 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alverca win broke the near-deadlock. Alverca (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Famalicao (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.