Alverca 3-1 Casa Pia – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Alverca at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Alverca face Casa Pia.

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Analysis

Casa Pia make the trip to FC Alverca Sports Complex to face Alverca in Primeira Liga (matchday 29). The match kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 16:30 UK time.

Current Form

Alverca's record over their last 10 games: 1W 6D 3L (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

At home, Alverca have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Casa Pia have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

When travelling, Casa Pia have posted 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Alverca against 1.10 for Casa Pia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 1 wins for Alverca, 0 for Casa Pia and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Nov 2025, ended Alverca 2–0 Casa Pia — a Alverca win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Alverca — key trading statistics (last 28 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).

Casa Pia — key trading statistics (last 28 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alverca 57% versus Casa Pia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alverca 54% | Casa Pia 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Alverca 1.18 xG and Casa Pia 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alverca attack 0.683 / defence 1.218 | Casa Pia attack 0.659 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.156. Alverca's attack rating of 0.683 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.18. Casa Pia's attack rating of 0.659 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.93. Alverca's defence rating of 1.218 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Casa Pia's projected output up. Data: built from Alverca's last 28 games and Casa Pia's last 61.

Result probabilities: Alverca 42% | Draw 30% | Casa Pia 29%. Fair-value odds: Alverca 2.40 | Draw 3.38 | Casa Pia 3.48. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Alverca as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alverca if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 65% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Alverca 50% (last 10 home games) | Casa Pia 30% (last 10 away games).

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