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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Alverca cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Casa Pia.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Alverca beat Casa Pia 3-1 at FC Alverca Sports Complex, Regular Season - 29, in the Primeira Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alverca 1.18 xG and Casa Pia 0.93 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Alverca beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alverca attack 0.68 / defence 1.22 against Casa Pia attack 0.66 / defence 1.15, drawn from 28/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alverca 42% | Draw 30% | Casa Pia 29%, with Alverca to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alverca 54%, Casa Pia 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alverca's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Casa Pia's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Alverca 1.14 PPG, Casa Pia 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Alverca win broke the near-deadlock. Alverca (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm. Casa Pia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights