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Stalemate at Alverca's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at FC Alverca Sports Complex, Regular Season - 25, as Alverca and AVS drew 0-0 in the Primeira Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Alverca 1.72 xG and AVS 1.12 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Alverca fell 1.7 short of their projected output. AVS landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alverca attack 0.74 / defence 1.12 against AVS attack 0.85 / defence 1.52, drawn from 24/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Alverca 51% | Draw 24% | AVS 24%, with Alverca to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alverca 50%, AVS 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Alverca's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

AVS's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Alverca arrived the stronger side — 1.12 PPG against 0.38. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Alverca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. AVS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 3.09 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights