Zaglebie Lubin 2-3 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zaglebie Lubin at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ekstraklasa encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Radomiak Radom travel to Stadion Zagłębia Lubin to take on Zaglebie Lubin. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 October 2023, 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ekstraklasa games this season, Zaglebie Lubin have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Zaglebie Lubin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zaglebie Lubin at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Zaglebie Lubin are significantly better at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin than their overall form suggests.
Radomiak Radom — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Radomiak Radom have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Zaglebie Lubin 1.40 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Zaglebie Lubin's 30% rate and Radomiak Radom's 20% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Zaglebie Lubin have won 2, Radomiak Radom 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2023, ended 1–0 with Zaglebie Lubin winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Zaglebie Lubin in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Radomiak Radom in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Zaglebie Lubin 44% versus Radomiak Radom 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zaglebie Lubin 44% | Radomiak Radom 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zaglebie Lubin 1.35 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.869 / defence 0.758 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.937 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.167. Zaglebie Lubin's defence rating of 0.758 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Zaglebie Lubin games / 46 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 47% | Draw 32% | Radomiak Radom 21%. Fair-value odds: Zaglebie Lubin 2.13 | Draw 3.12 | Radomiak Radom 4.76. Zaglebie Lubin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zaglebie Lubin as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zaglebie Lubin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.18 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Zaglebie Lubin 30% | Radomiak Radom 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion Zagłębia Lubin • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Oct 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zaglebie Lubin 47% | Draw 32% | Radomiak Radom 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Zaglebie Lubin 1.35 / Radomiak Radom 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.869 / def 0.758 | Radomiak Radom attack 0.937 / def 1.026 | league avg home 1.521 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Zaglebie Lubin (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Radomiak Radom xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 29 October 2023 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What was the final score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom?
Zaglebie Lubin 2 - 3 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin.
What competition is Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Zaglebie Lubin a 47% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 21% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Zaglebie Lubin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom?
Record (4 meetings): Zaglebie Lubin 2W | Draws 0 | Radomiak Radom 2W.
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom in?
Zaglebie Lubin (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Zaglebie Lubin's attack rating (0.87) and Radomiak Radom's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Zaglebie Lubin's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zaglebie Lubin Win
47%
2.12
32%
3.12
21%
4.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Zaglebie Lubin xG
Total xG
2.18
0.83
Radomiak Radom xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
4.80
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
21%
4.87
5%
18.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.6 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.6 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin and 0.83 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Zaglebie Lubin come into this having played 46 games, going 18W 11D 17L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L. The sample for Zaglebie Lubin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Radomiak Radom sit at 1.28 PPG from 46 outings (16W 11D 19L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Zaglebie Lubin on 1.41 PPG, Radomiak Radom on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Zaglebie Lubin's home form reads 8W 7D 8L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Radomiak Radom have taken 1.35 points per game from 23 outings (9W 4D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Zaglebie Lubin are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.07 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zaglebie Lubin
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Zaglebie Lubin have gone 18W 11D 17L in their last 46 games (1.41 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 16W 11D 19L in their last 46 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zaglebie Lubin at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Zaglebie Lubin's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zaglebie Lubin at home: 1.35 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 May 2022, when Zaglebie Lubin won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Zaglebie Lubin's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Zaglebie Lubin
0
Draws
4
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom?
From 10 meetings on record, Zaglebie Lubin have won 6, Radomiak Radom have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Zaglebie Lubin 1-0 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom?
Zaglebie Lubin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Zaglebie Lubin see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zaglebie Lubin 44%, Radomiak Radom 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (Zaglebie Lubin) and 48% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Zaglebie Lubin keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Zaglebie Lubin have failed to score in 35% of games; Radomiak Radom in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zaglebie Lubin home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zaglebie Lubin play Radomiak Radom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent matches and 39% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Zaglebie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Zaglebie Lubin's recent games and 48% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Zaglebie Lubin and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Zaglebie Lubin have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Radomiak Radom defy the odds to beat Zaglebie Lubin 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Radomiak Radom beat Zaglebie Lubin 2-3 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 13, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.35 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.83 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Radomiak Radom outscored their 0.83 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.87 / defence 0.76 against Radomiak Radom attack 0.94 / defence 1.03, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 47% | Draw 32% | Radomiak Radom 21%, with Zaglebie Lubin to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Radomiak Radom win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 44%, Radomiak Radom 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.41 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Radomiak Radom win broke the near-deadlock. Zaglebie Lubin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.