Radomiak Radom 0-1 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Radomiak Radom at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Radomiak Radom host Legia Warszawa at Stadion Radomiaka Radom in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 November 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Radomiak Radom — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Radomiak Radom at Stadion Radomiaka Radom this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Legia Warszawa stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Legia Warszawa away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Radomiak Radom at 1.50 PPG versus Legia Warszawa's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Radomiak Radom, 2 for Legia Warszawa and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Mar 2023, ended 0–2 with Legia Warszawa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Radomiak Radom trading profile (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Legia Warszawa trading profile (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 41% versus Legia Warszawa 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 41% | Legia Warszawa 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 1.71 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.964 / defence 0.951 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.005 / defence 1.174. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.189. Data: 47 Radomiak Radom games / 46 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 49% | Draw 27% | Legia Warszawa 24%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Legia Warszawa 4.17. Radomiak Radom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Radomiak Radom as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Radomiak Radom offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 60% | Legia Warszawa 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion Radomiaka Radom • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Nov 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 49% | Draw 27% | Legia Warszawa 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Radomiak Radom 1.71 / Legia Warszawa 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.964 / def 0.951 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.005 / def 1.174 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Radomiak Radom (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Legia Warszawa xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Stadion Radomiaka Radom.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa?
Radomiak Radom 0 - 1 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Radomiaka Radom.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 49% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Radomiak Radom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa?
Record (3 meetings): Radomiak Radom 1W | Draws 0 | Legia Warszawa 2W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Radomiak Radom's attack rating (0.96) and Legia Warszawa's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Legia Warszawa's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Radomiak Radom Win
49%
2.03
27%
3.67
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
2.85
1.14
Legia Warszawa xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
18%
5.55
Win to Nil
16%
6.33
4%
23.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 11.3 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.14 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Radomiak Radom's recent record stands at 17W 10D 19L from 46 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Legia Warszawa, meanwhile, have gone 25W 11D 10L across 46 games — 1.87 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Legia Warszawa by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Radomiak Radom heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Radomiak Radom have managed 7W 6D 9L from 22 games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Legia Warszawa's away record stands at 8W 6D 8L across 22 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.87 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Legia Warszawa's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.67 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 17W 10D 19L in their last 46 games (1.33 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 25W 11D 10L in their last 46 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Legia Warszawa's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.23 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Radomiak Radom or Legia Warszawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Radomiak Radom have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Legia Warszawa in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Aug 2026, when Legia Warszawa won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Legia Warszawa specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Radomiak Radom
1
Draws
6
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 3, Legia Warszawa have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Legia Warszawa 5-0 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Legia Warszawa see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 41%, Legia Warszawa 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Radomiak Radom) and 46% (Legia Warszawa).
On the defensive side: Radomiak Radom have failed to score in 41% of games; Legia Warszawa in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Legia Warszawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 46% of Legia Warszawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 46% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Legia Warszawa defy the odds to beat Radomiak Radom 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Radomiak Radom 0-1 at Stadion Radomiaka Radom, Regular Season - 14, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 1.71 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.14 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Radomiak Radom fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.96 / defence 0.95 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.00 / defence 1.17, drawn from 47/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 49% | Draw 27% | Legia Warszawa 24%, with Radomiak Radom to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Legia Warszawa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 41%, Legia Warszawa 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Legia Warszawa arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.33. Form held, and they took the win. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.