Pogon Szczecin 2-1 Jagiellonia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pogon Szczecin at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jagiellonia make the trip to Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera to face Pogon Szczecin in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 October 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Pogon Szczecin have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Pogon Szczecin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Pogon Szczecin have gone 7W 0D 3L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Pogon Szczecin are significantly better at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera than their overall form suggests.
Jagiellonia (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jagiellonia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Jagiellonia have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Jagiellonia are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Pogon Szczecin have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Jagiellonia in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Pogon Szczecin 3W, Jagiellonia 1W, 0D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2023, ended 0–2 with Jagiellonia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Pogon Szczecin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Jagiellonia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pogon Szczecin 56% and Jagiellonia 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pogon Szczecin 59% | Jagiellonia 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pogon Szczecin 2.38 xG and Jagiellonia 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.328 / defence 1.188 | Jagiellonia attack 1.280 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.181. Pogon Szczecin carry an above-average attack strength of 1.328 — their λ of 2.38 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Jagiellonia have an above-average attack strength of 1.280 — the away xG of 1.79 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 Pogon Szczecin games / 46 Jagiellonia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 50% | Draw 22% | Jagiellonia 28%. Fair-value odds: Pogon Szczecin 2.00 | Draw 4.55 | Jagiellonia 3.57. Pogon Szczecin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 77% | Total xG 4.17. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.17 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 77% reflects that both xG figures (2.38 / 1.79) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
Pogon Szczecin dominate the H2H record, yet Jagiellonia are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pogon Szczecin at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Jagiellonia (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pogon Szczecin if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 79% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 77% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Pogon Szczecin 60% | Jagiellonia 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pogon Szczecin 50% | Draw 22% | Jagiellonia 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 77% | xG Pogon Szczecin 2.38 / Jagiellonia 1.79 • Poisson strength factors: Pogon Szczecin attack 1.328 / def 1.188 | Jagiellonia attack 1.280 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Pogon Szczecin (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.38
Pogon Szczecin xG
Expected Goals
1.79
Jagiellonia xG
77%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia kick off?
Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What was the final score in Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia?
Pogon Szczecin 2 - 1 Jagiellonia.
Where is Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera.
What competition is Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia part of?
Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia?
Our statistical model gives Pogon Szczecin a 50% chance of winning, Jagiellonia a 28% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Pogon Szczecin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia?
Our model estimates a 77% probability that both Pogon Szczecin and Jagiellonia will score (BTTS).
Will Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Jagiellonia?
Record (4 meetings): Pogon Szczecin 3W | Draws 0 | Jagiellonia 1W.
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Jagiellonia in?
Pogon Szczecin (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Jagiellonia (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Pogon Szczecin's attacking strength (1.33x league average) is weighed against Jagiellonia's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.38. Flip it around — Jagiellonia's attack (1.28x) against Pogon Szczecin's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.79.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 7.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.4%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Pogon Szczecin Win
50%
2.00
22%
4.65
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
1 – 1
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.38
Pogon Szczecin xG
Total xG
4.17
1.79
Jagiellonia xG
2.00
50%
Home win
4.65
22%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
60%
Over 3.5
1.67
40%
Under 3.5
2.50
40%
Over 4.5
2.50
60%
Under 4.5
1.67
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
77%
BTTS Yes
1.30
23%
BTTS No
4.28
Clean Sheet
17%
6.02
9%
10.75
Win to Nil
8%
12.01
3%
37.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 6.6 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.8 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.8%.
How many goals are Pogon Szczecin and Jagiellonia expected to score?
The model projects 2.38 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin and 1.79 for Jagiellonia, a combined total of 4.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 46 outings, Pogon Szczecin have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 23W 10D 13L record — W-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Pogon Szczecin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jagiellonia's form line: 17W 16D 13L from 46 games, 1.46 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-D. The sample for Jagiellonia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.72 PPG for Pogon Szczecin against 1.46 for Jagiellonia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Pogon Szczecin have posted 1.87 PPG from 23 outings (13W 4D 6L).
On the road, Jagiellonia have gone 3W 12D 8L from 23 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.46 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jagiellonia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pogon Szczecin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pogon Szczecin are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Jagiellonia are on 1.67 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jagiellonia in 70%.
Last 46 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pogon Szczecin
Blended
Jagiellonia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pogon Szczecin and Jagiellonia in coming into this match?
Pogon Szczecin have gone 23W 10D 13L in their last 46 games (1.72 PPG), while Jagiellonia have gone 17W 16D 13L in their last 46 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pogon Szczecin at home or Jagiellonia away?
Pogon Szczecin's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pogon Szczecin at home: 1.87 PPG; Jagiellonia away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Jagiellonia have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pogon Szczecin won 4-1 on 23 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pogon Szczecin have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jagiellonia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pogon Szczecin
3
Draws
3
Jagiellonia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pogon Szczecin and Jagiellonia?
From 10 meetings on record, Pogon Szczecin have won 4, Jagiellonia have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pogon Szczecin and Jagiellonia last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Jagiellonia 3-2 Pogon Szczecin.
Who has won more matches between Pogon Szczecin and Jagiellonia?
Pogon Szczecin have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pogon Szczecin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Jagiellonia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 61% for Pogon Szczecin, 70% for Jagiellonia — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Pogon Szczecin) and 48% (Jagiellonia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jagiellonia in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pogon Szczecin home games / Jagiellonia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pogon Szczecin play Jagiellonia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Pogon Szczecin's games and 70% of Jagiellonia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Pogon Szczecin's matches and 48% of Jagiellonia's.
Do Pogon Szczecin and Jagiellonia tend to score early?
Pogon Szczecin have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Jagiellonia in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pogon Szczecin edge out Jagiellonia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pogon Szczecin beat Jagiellonia 2-1 at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera, Regular Season - 13, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pogon Szczecin 2.38 xG and Jagiellonia 1.79 xG, a combined 4.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pogon Szczecin attack 1.33 / defence 1.19 against Jagiellonia attack 1.28 / defence 1.18, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pogon Szczecin 50% | Draw 22% | Jagiellonia 28%, with Pogon Szczecin to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 60% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 77% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pogon Szczecin 59%, Jagiellonia 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pogon Szczecin's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Jagiellonia's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pogon Szczecin 1.72 PPG, Jagiellonia 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pogon Szczecin win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.