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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Cracovia Krakow edge out Zaglebie Lubin 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cracovia Krakow beat Zaglebie Lubin 1-2 at Stadion Zagłębia Lubin, Regular Season - 34, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Zaglebie Lubin 1.32 xG and Cracovia Krakow 1.40 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zaglebie Lubin attack 0.88 / defence 1.14 against Cracovia Krakow attack 0.99 / defence 0.96, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Zaglebie Lubin 35% | Draw 26% | Cracovia Krakow 39%, with Cracovia Krakow to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zaglebie Lubin 48%, Cracovia Krakow 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Zaglebie Lubin's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Cracovia Krakow's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Zaglebie Lubin 1.24 PPG, Cracovia Krakow 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cracovia Krakow win broke the near-deadlock. Cracovia Krakow (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights