Stal Mielec 1-1 Wisla Plock – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stal Mielec at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stal Mielec vs Wisla Plock fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Wisla Plock make the trip to Stadion Miejski w Mielcu to face Stal Mielec in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Stal Mielec (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 Ekstraklasa fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Stal Mielec, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stal Mielec's home record at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Wisla Plock have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L L W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Plock away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Stal Mielec, 1 for Wisla Plock and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2022, ended 0–3 with Wisla Plock winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Stal Mielec — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Wisla Plock — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stal Mielec 53% versus Wisla Plock 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stal Mielec 49% | Wisla Plock 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stal Mielec 1.59 xG and Wisla Plock 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stal Mielec attack 1.106 / defence 1.120 | Wisla Plock attack 1.158 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.136. Data: 47 Stal Mielec games / 47 Wisla Plock games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stal Mielec 41% | Draw 24% | Wisla Plock 35%. Fair-value odds: Stal Mielec 2.44 | Draw 4.17 | Wisla Plock 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stal Mielec are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stal Mielec if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Stal Mielec 50% | Wisla Plock 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stal Mielec vs Wisla Plock | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadion Miejski w Mielcu • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stal Mielec 41% | Draw 24% | Wisla Plock 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Stal Mielec 1.59 / Wisla Plock 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Stal Mielec attack 1.106 / def 1.120 | Wisla Plock attack 1.158 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Stal Mielec (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Stal Mielec xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Wisla Plock xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stal Mielec vs Wisla Plock kick off?
Stal Mielec vs Wisla Plock kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What was the final score in Stal Mielec vs Wisla Plock?
Stal Mielec 1 - 1 Wisla Plock.
Where is Stal Mielec vs Wisla Plock being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu.
What competition is Stal Mielec vs Wisla Plock part of?
Stal Mielec vs Wisla Plock is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Stal Mielec vs Wisla Plock?
Our statistical model gives Stal Mielec a 41% chance of winning, Wisla Plock a 35% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Stal Mielec the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stal Mielec vs Wisla Plock?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Stal Mielec and Wisla Plock will score (BTTS).
Will Stal Mielec vs Wisla Plock have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Wisla Plock?
Record (2 meetings): Stal Mielec 1W | Draws 0 | Wisla Plock 1W.
What form are Stal Mielec and Wisla Plock in?
Stal Mielec (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Wisla Plock (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Stal Mielec's attack rating (1.11) and Wisla Plock's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Wisla Plock's attack (1.16x) against Stal Mielec's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stal Mielec Win
41%
2.46
24%
4.17
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Stal Mielec xG
Total xG
3.06
1.47
Wisla Plock xG
2.46
41%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
23%
4.36
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
9%
10.73
7%
13.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.9 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stal Mielec vs Wisla Plock?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Stal Mielec and Wisla Plock expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Stal Mielec and 1.47 for Wisla Plock, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Stal Mielec vs Wisla Plock?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Stal Mielec come into this having played 47 games, going 16W 11D 20L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W. The sample for Stal Mielec is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wisla Plock sit at 1.53 PPG from 47 outings (22W 6D 19L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Stal Mielec against 1.53 for Wisla Plock. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Stal Mielec's home form reads 10W 5D 8L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Wisla Plock have taken 0.91 points per game from 23 outings (6W 3D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.53 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wisla Plock's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stal Mielec come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stal Mielec are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Wisla Plock are on 1.55 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stal Mielec
Blended
Wisla Plock
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stal Mielec and Wisla Plock in coming into this match?
Stal Mielec have gone 16W 11D 20L in their last 47 games (1.26 PPG), while Wisla Plock have gone 22W 6D 19L in their last 47 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stal Mielec at home or Wisla Plock away?
Stal Mielec's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stal Mielec at home: 1.52 PPG; Wisla Plock away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Wisla Plock won 3-0 on 21 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stal Mielec have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Wisla Plock — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Stal Mielec
2
Draws
1
Wisla Plock
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stal Mielec and Wisla Plock?
From 4 meetings on record, Stal Mielec have won 1, Wisla Plock have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Stal Mielec and Wisla Plock last play each other?
They last met on 7 May 2023, when Wisla Plock 0-0 Stal Mielec.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stal Mielec are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stal Mielec 48%, Wisla Plock 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Stal Mielec) and 70% (Wisla Plock). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 13% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Stal Mielec have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stal Mielec home games / Wisla Plock away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stal Mielec play Wisla Plock?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Stal Mielec's games and 70% of Wisla Plock's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Stal Mielec vs Wisla Plock usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Stal Mielec's matches and 70% of Wisla Plock's.
Do Stal Mielec and Wisla Plock tend to score early?
Stal Mielec have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Wisla Plock in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stal Mielec and Wisla Plock share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stal Mielec and Wisla Plock finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Miejski w Mielcu, Regular Season - 14, in the Ekstraklasa. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stal Mielec 1.59 xG and Wisla Plock 1.47 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stal Mielec attack 1.11 / defence 1.12 against Wisla Plock attack 1.16 / defence 1.08, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stal Mielec 41% | Draw 24% | Wisla Plock 35%, with Stal Mielec to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stal Mielec 49%, Wisla Plock 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stal Mielec's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Wisla Plock's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stal Mielec 1.26 PPG, Wisla Plock 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Wisla Plock (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.