Wisla Plock 1-1 Radomiak Radom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Wisla Plock take on Radomiak Radom.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Wisla Plock host Radomiak Radom at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 April 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Wisla Plock — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Wisla Plock, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wisla Plock's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Wisla Plock are significantly better at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Radomiak Radom stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Radomiak Radom away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Radomiak Radom are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Wisla Plock have won 1, Radomiak Radom 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2022, ended 0–2 with Radomiak Radom winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Wisla Plock in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Radomiak Radom in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wisla Plock 54% versus Radomiak Radom 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wisla Plock 54% | Radomiak Radom 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wisla Plock 0.97 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wisla Plock attack 0.870 / defence 0.882 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.033 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.236 / away 1.026. Data: 59 Wisla Plock games / 59 Radomiak Radom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wisla Plock 34% | Draw 34% | Radomiak Radom 32%. Fair-value odds: Wisla Plock 2.94 | Draw 2.94 | Radomiak Radom 3.12. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.91 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 30% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Wisla Plock 50% | Radomiak Radom 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Apr 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wisla Plock 34% | Draw 34% | Radomiak Radom 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 39% | xG Wisla Plock 0.97 / Radomiak Radom 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Wisla Plock attack 0.870 / def 0.882 | Radomiak Radom attack 1.033 / def 0.907 | league avg home 1.236 / away 1.026 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Wisla Plock xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Radomiak Radom xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom kick off?
Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 2 April 2023 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What was the final score in Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom?
Wisla Plock 1 - 1 Radomiak Radom.
Where is Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego.
What competition is Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom part of?
Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom?
Our statistical model gives Wisla Plock a 34% chance of winning, Radomiak Radom a 32% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom will score (BTTS).
Will Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom?
Record (3 meetings): Wisla Plock 1W | Draws 1 | Radomiak Radom 1W.
What form are Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom in?
Wisla Plock (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Wisla Plock's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Radomiak Radom's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. The same calculation in reverse, Radomiak Radom's attack versus Wisla Plock's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.95
34%
2.91
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Wisla Plock xG
Total xG
1.91
0.94
Radomiak Radom xG
2.95
34%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
13%
7.52
12%
8.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 13.8 | 6.5 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.5 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Wisla Plock and 0.94 for Radomiak Radom, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wisla Plock come into this having played 59 games, going 24W 8D 27L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Wisla Plock is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Radomiak Radom sit at 1.36 PPG from 59 outings (20W 20D 19L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wisla Plock on 1.36 PPG, Radomiak Radom on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Wisla Plock's home form reads 18W 4D 7L across 29 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.36 PPG overall — Wisla Plock are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Radomiak Radom have taken 1.31 points per game from 29 outings (9W 11D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wisla Plock come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wisla Plock are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Radomiak Radom are on 1.15 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wisla Plock
Blended
Radomiak Radom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom in coming into this match?
Wisla Plock have gone 24W 8D 27L in their last 59 games (1.36 PPG), while Radomiak Radom have gone 20W 20D 19L in their last 59 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wisla Plock at home or Radomiak Radom away?
Wisla Plock's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wisla Plock at home: 2.00 PPG; Radomiak Radom away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Wisla Plock's record when hosting Radomiak Radom specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Wisla Plock
3
Draws
2
Radomiak Radom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom?
From 6 meetings on record, Wisla Plock have won 1, Radomiak Radom have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Wisla Plock 0-1 Radomiak Radom.
Who has won more matches between Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom?
Radomiak Radom have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wisla Plock are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wisla Plock 41%, Radomiak Radom 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Wisla Plock) and 41% (Radomiak Radom).
On the defensive side: Wisla Plock keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Radomiak Radom in 31%; Radomiak Radom in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wisla Plock home games / Radomiak Radom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wisla Plock play Radomiak Radom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Wisla Plock's recent matches and 45% of Radomiak Radom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wisla Plock vs Radomiak Radom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Wisla Plock's recent games and 41% of Radomiak Radom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom tend to score early?
Wisla Plock have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Radomiak Radom in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wisla Plock and Radomiak Radom finished level at 1-1 at Stadion im. Kazimierza Górskiego, Regular Season - 26, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wisla Plock 0.97 xG and Radomiak Radom 0.94 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wisla Plock attack 0.87 / defence 0.88 against Radomiak Radom attack 1.03 / defence 0.91, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wisla Plock 34% | Draw 34% | Radomiak Radom 32%, with Wisla Plock to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wisla Plock 54%, Radomiak Radom 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wisla Plock's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wisla Plock 1.36 PPG, Radomiak Radom 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.