Piast Gliwice 1-0 Gornik Zabrze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Piast Gliwice at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ekstraklasa clash, Regular Season - 26 as Piast Gliwice welcome Gornik Zabrze to Stadion Miejski. Kick-off is set for Friday 31 March 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Piast Gliwice — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Piast Gliwice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Piast Gliwice's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Stadion Miejski this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Miejski this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gornik Zabrze stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Gornik Zabrze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ekstraklasa this season, Gornik Zabrze have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Piast Gliwice have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Piast Gliwice register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Gornik Zabrze in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Piast Gliwice, 0 for Gornik Zabrze and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2022, ended 3–3 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Piast Gliwice in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Gornik Zabrze in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Piast Gliwice 46% versus Gornik Zabrze 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Piast Gliwice 32% | Gornik Zabrze 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Piast Gliwice 1.22 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Piast Gliwice attack 0.931 / defence 1.028 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.978 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 1.061. Data: 59 Piast Gliwice games / 59 Gornik Zabrze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 38% | Draw 31% | Gornik Zabrze 31%. Fair-value odds: Piast Gliwice 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Gornik Zabrze 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Piast Gliwice as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Piast Gliwice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Piast Gliwice 70% | Gornik Zabrze 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadion Miejski • Kick-off: Friday 31 Mar 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Piast Gliwice 38% | Draw 31% | Gornik Zabrze 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Piast Gliwice 1.22 / Gornik Zabrze 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Piast Gliwice attack 0.931 / def 1.028 | Gornik Zabrze attack 0.978 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.239 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Piast Gliwice (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Piast Gliwice xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Gornik Zabrze xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze kick off?
Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 31 March 2023 at Stadion Miejski.
What was the final score in Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze?
Piast Gliwice 1 - 0 Gornik Zabrze.
Where is Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Miejski.
What competition is Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze part of?
Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our statistical model gives Piast Gliwice a 38% chance of winning, Gornik Zabrze a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Piast Gliwice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Piast Gliwice and Gornik Zabrze will score (BTTS).
Will Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Gornik Zabrze?
Record (3 meetings): Piast Gliwice 1W | Draws 2 | Gornik Zabrze 0W.
What form are Piast Gliwice and Gornik Zabrze in?
Piast Gliwice (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Gornik Zabrze (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Piast Gliwice's attack rating (0.93) and Gornik Zabrze's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gornik Zabrze's attack versus Piast Gliwice's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Piast Gliwice Win
38%
2.63
31%
3.18
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Piast Gliwice xG
Total xG
2.28
1.07
Gornik Zabrze xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
13%
7.65
9%
11.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 10.9 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.2 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Piast Gliwice and Gornik Zabrze expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Piast Gliwice and 1.07 for Gornik Zabrze, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Piast Gliwice have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 23W 15D 21L record — L-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Piast Gliwice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gornik Zabrze's form line: 20W 15D 24L from 59 games, 1.27 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Gornik Zabrze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Piast Gliwice on 1.42 PPG, Gornik Zabrze on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Piast Gliwice have posted 1.28 PPG from 29 outings (10W 7D 12L).
On the road, Gornik Zabrze have gone 10W 6D 13L from 29 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Piast Gliwice are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Gornik Zabrze are on 1.47 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gornik Zabrze in 64%.
Last 59 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Piast Gliwice
Blended
Gornik Zabrze
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Piast Gliwice and Gornik Zabrze in coming into this match?
Piast Gliwice have gone 23W 15D 21L in their last 59 games (1.42 PPG), while Gornik Zabrze have gone 20W 15D 24L in their last 59 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Piast Gliwice at home or Gornik Zabrze away?
Piast Gliwice's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Piast Gliwice at home: 1.28 PPG; Gornik Zabrze away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Gornik Zabrze have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Piast Gliwice's record when hosting Gornik Zabrze specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Piast Gliwice
3
Draws
4
Gornik Zabrze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Piast Gliwice and Gornik Zabrze?
From 10 meetings on record, Piast Gliwice have won 3, Gornik Zabrze have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Piast Gliwice and Gornik Zabrze last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Gornik Zabrze 2-1 Piast Gliwice.
Who has won more matches between Piast Gliwice and Gornik Zabrze?
Gornik Zabrze have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Piast Gliwice see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Gornik Zabrze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Piast Gliwice at 59%, Gornik Zabrze at 72%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Piast Gliwice) and 69% (Gornik Zabrze). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Piast Gliwice have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Piast Gliwice home games / Gornik Zabrze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Piast Gliwice play Gornik Zabrze?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Piast Gliwice's games and 72% of Gornik Zabrze's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Piast Gliwice vs Gornik Zabrze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 41% of Piast Gliwice's matches and 69% of Gornik Zabrze's.
Do Piast Gliwice and Gornik Zabrze tend to score early?
Piast Gliwice have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Gornik Zabrze in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Piast Gliwice edge out Gornik Zabrze 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Piast Gliwice beat Gornik Zabrze 1-0 at Stadion Miejski, Regular Season - 26, in the Ekstraklasa. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Piast Gliwice 1.22 xG and Gornik Zabrze 1.07 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gornik Zabrze landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Piast Gliwice attack 0.93 / defence 1.03 against Gornik Zabrze attack 0.98 / defence 1.05, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Piast Gliwice 38% | Draw 31% | Gornik Zabrze 31%, with Piast Gliwice to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Piast Gliwice 32%, Gornik Zabrze 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Piast Gliwice's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Gornik Zabrze's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Piast Gliwice 1.42 PPG, Gornik Zabrze 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Piast Gliwice win broke the near-deadlock. Piast Gliwice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Gornik Zabrze (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.