Radomiak Radom 0-2 Legia Warszawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Legia Warszawa at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Radomiak Radom host Legia Warszawa at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego in Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 17 March 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Radomiak Radom — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ekstraklasa outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Radomiak Radom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Radomiak Radom at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Legia Warszawa stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Ekstraklasa matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Legia Warszawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Legia Warszawa away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Legia Warszawa — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Radomiak Radom, 1 for Legia Warszawa and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2022, ended 0–1 with Legia Warszawa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Radomiak Radom trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Legia Warszawa trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Radomiak Radom 50% versus Legia Warszawa 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Radomiak Radom 40% | Legia Warszawa 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Radomiak Radom 0.80 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Radomiak Radom attack 0.784 / defence 0.944 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.048 / defence 0.809. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.078. Radomiak Radom's attack strength of 0.784 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 58 Radomiak Radom games / 58 Legia Warszawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 26% | Draw 33% | Legia Warszawa 41%. Fair-value odds: Radomiak Radom 3.85 | Draw 3.03 | Legia Warszawa 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Legia Warszawa as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Legia Warszawa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.87 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Radomiak Radom 30% | Legia Warszawa 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa | Competition: Ekstraklasa, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego • Kick-off: Friday 17 Mar 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Radomiak Radom 26% | Draw 33% | Legia Warszawa 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG Radomiak Radom 0.80 / Legia Warszawa 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Radomiak Radom attack 0.784 / def 0.944 | Legia Warszawa attack 1.048 / def 0.809 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.078 • Poisson stance: Legia Warszawa (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Radomiak Radom xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Legia Warszawa xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa kick off?
Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 17 March 2023 at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What was the final score in Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa?
Radomiak Radom 0 - 2 Legia Warszawa.
Where is Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego.
What competition is Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa part of?
Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ekstraklasa (Poland).
Who is favourite to win Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa?
Our statistical model gives Radomiak Radom a 26% chance of winning, Legia Warszawa a 41% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Legia Warszawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa will score (BTTS).
Will Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa?
Record (3 meetings): Radomiak Radom 2W | Draws 0 | Legia Warszawa 1W.
What form are Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa in?
Radomiak Radom (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Legia Warszawa (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Radomiak Radom's attack rating (0.78) and Legia Warszawa's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 0.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Legia Warszawa's attack versus Radomiak Radom's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Legia Warszawa Win
26%
3.78
33%
3.04
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Radomiak Radom xG
Total xG
1.87
1.07
Legia Warszawa xG
3.78
26%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
45%
2.23
Win to Nil
9%
10.99
18%
5.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 16.5 | 8.8 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.2 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Radomiak Radom and 1.07 for Legia Warszawa, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Radomiak Radom's recent record stands at 20W 20D 18L from 58 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Radomiak Radom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Legia Warszawa, meanwhile, have gone 27W 11D 20L across 58 games — 1.59 PPG, with D-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Legia Warszawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Radomiak Radom on 1.38 PPG, Legia Warszawa on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Radomiak Radom have managed 11W 9D 9L from 29 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Legia Warszawa's away record stands at 9W 7D 13L across 29 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.59 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Legia Warszawa's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Radomiak Radom are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Legia Warszawa are on 1.43 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Ekstraklasa
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Radomiak Radom
Blended
Legia Warszawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa in coming into this match?
Radomiak Radom have gone 20W 20D 18L in their last 58 games (1.38 PPG), while Legia Warszawa have gone 27W 11D 20L in their last 58 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Radomiak Radom at home or Legia Warszawa away?
Radomiak Radom's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Radomiak Radom at home: 1.45 PPG; Legia Warszawa away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Radomiak Radom or Legia Warszawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Radomiak Radom have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Legia Warszawa in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ekstraklasa. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Dec 2021, when Radomiak Radom won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Radomiak Radom's record when hosting Legia Warszawa specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Radomiak Radom
1
Draws
5
Legia Warszawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Radomiak Radom have won 4, Legia Warszawa have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Radomiak Radom 1-1 Legia Warszawa.
Who has won more matches between Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa?
Legia Warszawa have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Radomiak Radom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Legia Warszawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Radomiak Radom 55%, Legia Warszawa 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Radomiak Radom) and 48% (Legia Warszawa).
On the defensive side: Legia Warszawa in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Radomiak Radom home games / Legia Warszawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Radomiak Radom play Legia Warszawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Radomiak Radom's recent matches and 52% of Legia Warszawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Radomiak Radom vs Legia Warszawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Radomiak Radom's recent games and 48% of Legia Warszawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Radomiak Radom and Legia Warszawa tend to score early?
Radomiak Radom have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Legia Warszawa in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Legia Warszawa cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Radomiak Radom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Legia Warszawa beat Radomiak Radom 0-2 at Stadion Lekkoatletyczno-Piłkarski im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Regular Season - 25, in the Ekstraklasa. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Radomiak Radom 0.80 xG and Legia Warszawa 1.07 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Radomiak Radom fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Legia Warszawa outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Radomiak Radom attack 0.78 / defence 0.94 against Legia Warszawa attack 1.05 / defence 0.81, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Radomiak Radom 26% | Draw 33% | Legia Warszawa 41%, with Legia Warszawa to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Radomiak Radom 40%, Legia Warszawa 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Radomiak Radom's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Legia Warszawa's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Radomiak Radom 1.38 PPG, Legia Warszawa 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Legia Warszawa win broke the near-deadlock. Radomiak Radom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward. Legia Warszawa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.